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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE MAKES A CLEAR SHIFT AND LEADER

For the first time in the race for the Republican nomination there is a clear leader and it is unquestionable. In fact the lead is so strong that it is not only well out of the margin of error but showing the previously steady support for Mitt Romney also shifting as Romney has faded in recent polling.

The Real Clear Politics average of all polling has Newt Gingrich domination the polls in the early primary states. Iowa has Gingrich up by 15 at 28% over Romney at 13% and Cain at 10%. In South Carolina the lead is more dramatic. Gingrich has a 23 point lead at 38% over Romney at 15% and Cain at 13%.

Florida which offers the largest number of delegates in the early primaries gives Gingrich a 24 point lead at 41% to Romney's 17% and Cain's 13%. With the early primaries just a little over a month away this clear Gingrich lead according to reports is causing great concern in the Romney camp as his former steady polling numbers in the low twenties has diminished with voters now clearly choosing a candidate and it obviously is not Romney.

Public Policy Polling is also showing that the allegations against Cain are now hurting him to the point that he has dropped to an almost distant third in all polling and former Cain supporters seem to be shifting to Gingrich as well as many former Romney supporters which is another reason the shift toward Gingrich has given him the clear lead for the GOP nomination.

Additionally Gingrich also holds the best favorable rating among registered voters compared to both Romney and Cain. The PPP polling also shows that Cain supporters who are questioning that support in light of the allegations clearly favor Gingrich over Romney as the former Speaker holds a 73% favorable rating over Romney's dismal 33%.

Another indication that recent polling is causing concern in the Romney camp comes from an interview conducted by Fox News Anchor Bret Baier in which Romney for the first time in any interview attacked Gingrich over policy and called Gingrich a career politician while he was a businessman. Of course Romney always neglects to mention that he has been involved in politics and not business since the early 90's when he made his first run challenging Ted Kennedy for the Senate in 1994.

Until recent polling the lead for the GOP nomination has either been within the margin of error or just out of the margin of error with the leader being in the low to mid twenties. Gingrich now has a commanding lead in early primary states and has emerged as the clear leader for the nomination based solely on his intelligence, his outstanding answers in every debate and his clear understanding of the issues with detailed answers and solutions which is resonating with voters.

Ken Taylor

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