REPUBLICAN FIELD BECOMING A THREE MAN RACE
As we approach the Primaries which begin with the Iowa Caucus on January 3, 2012 the GOP front runners look to be the only survivors going into the Primaries and the likely survivors when the initial Primaries lead to the huge Super Tuesday March 6 where ten State Primaries are up for grabs during one day.
Depending on the poll either Cain or Romney are in the lead with Gingrich in third all within the margin of error. A new CNN poll has Romney and Gingrich leading within 2 percentage points of one another with Cain third about 5 points back from Gingrich who is second. The rest of the pack falls below 10% in the CNN poll.
The false allegations against Cain of sexual harassment which initially seemed to have no affect in the polling of late have watched the former sole front runner in almost every poll drop to either a tied status with Romney or a very close third as is the case in the CNN poll. Much of this fall is due to Cains somewhat poor handling of the allegations with his family who are in full support of Cain only coming out in support of him in the past couple of days which many believe has hurt him along with his lack of addressing the false charges for more than a week after they first appeared.
Gingrich has surged in the polls based mainly on his unmatched performances in each of the many GOP debates. His knowledge of the issues and his feisty answers especially when confronting the idiocy of the media have shown the former Speaker of the House to be the smartest candidate in the field and his straight forward and detailed solutions are also allowing voters to see a well informed candidate who understands how to solve problems in detail better than any of the candidates have expressed to date.
Romney has been stagnate from the beginning as voters have been seeking what many call the Romney alternative. Conservatives have great pause with Romney whose conservative credentials are questionable at best because of his record as Governor. Additionally Romney fairs poorly with Independents with internals in most polling actually showing him in a distant fourth among this voting block whose support is key to winning not just the nomination but the General Election next November.
As a conservative I would be happy with either Cain or Gingrich even with the baggage Gingrich has had in the past most of which he has refuted and or corrected with reasonable explanations. Cains problem with the false harassment charges mean nothing especially since he was exonerated and a recent voice stress test that I posted about last week have proven him to be innocent of these ridiculous allegations.
Romney has never been at or even near the top of my list as I see him as an opportunist conservative who has claimed those credentials only to garner votes to win Primaries with his record as Governor showing him to be a moderate at best and in many cases a more liberal moderate.
My concern with such a close race for the Primaries is the distinct possibility of the nomination going all the way to the Convention. The last time this happened and the nominee for the GOP was decided at the Convention since there was not a clear Primary winner was 1976. Ronald Reagan was the choice of the people as he had won more Primaries than Gerald Ford who was the incumbent President and the GOP establishment candidate. A deal was cut behind Reagan's back that gave the nomination to Ford angering Reagan as he was offered the VP slot as a consolation which he rejected. Ford went on to lose to Jimmy Carter.
Romney is the establishment Republican. That is why we are hearing so much favorable press coverage and why during the debate he is always deemed,"Presidential," and declared the winner regardless of his performance. The press and the GOP establishment crowned him long ago. The voters on the other hand have never bought into this scam and as such we see a three man race with two strong conservatives either ahead of or tied with Romney. If this goes to the Convention whether it is Cain or Gingrich or both against Romney for the nomination we may very well see a replay of 1976 since the establishment fears a conservative as they did Reagan then.
So the challenge for conservatives and independents who do not necessarily like Romney is to not sit back on laurels and wait for the Primaries to decide the nominee but get out in large numbers and vote for the conservative candidate of our choice and make sure the conservative gets the nomination. A real conservative is what we need and a real conservative can win in 2012. It is up to us to make sure the conservative candidate meets to defeat Obama for the Presidency.