OBAMA BEHIND IN ALL POLLING WHEN SAMPLE IS BALANCED
Polling for the 2012 election is skewed favoring Obama as the sampling is decidedly a larger percentage of Democrats over Republicans and Independents. The baseline for 2012 polling is the 2008 election which had a 39% Democrat participation, 31% Republican and 25% Independent. This sampling baseline even with Romney showing at least a 15 point lead with Independents in all polls has Romney either behind, even or only one or two points ahead. Moving the baseline to a balanced approach based more on the 2010 election which had Republicans, Independents and Democrats nearly balanced at the polls on election day a much better baseline as 2012 mirrors 2010 much more than 2008 because of the higher involvement of Republicans and Independents than in 2008, a sampling of equal numbers of Republican, Independents and Democrats the picture changes dramatically as shown below.
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 - 736 Likely Voters - Obama 44.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +7
Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 - 1344 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 50.0 - Romney +5
Q Star News 9/13 - 9/16 - 2075 Registered Voters Obama 44.0 - Romney - 55.0 Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 - 1162 Likely Voters Obama 44.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 - 1000 Likely Voters Obama 43.0 - Romney 52.0 - Romney +8
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 - 1056 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 48.0 - Romney +3
Reuters/Ipsos 9/7 - 9/10 - 873 Likely Voters Obama 42.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +9
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 - 826 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 52.0 - Romney +7
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 - 875 Registered Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 53.0 - Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 - 808 Registered Voters Obama 41.0 - Romney 50.0 - Romney +9
ARG 9/4 - 9/6 - 1200 Likely Voters Obama 43.0 - Romney 53.0 - Romney +10
Average of all polls - Obama 43.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney + 8
For those who have been discouraged by the polling take heart when polls are balanced and Romney is actually leading. Of course as always the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. But the bottom line is don't fall for the media skewing of this election and know that the American people know failure when they see it and vote with their pocket book. Obama IS a failure and everyone is hurting in the pocket book which places Obama as a one term failed President.
Ken Taylor
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 - 736 Likely Voters - Obama 44.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +7
Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 - 1344 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 50.0 - Romney +5
Q Star News 9/13 - 9/16 - 2075 Registered Voters Obama 44.0 - Romney - 55.0 Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 - 1162 Likely Voters Obama 44.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 - 1000 Likely Voters Obama 43.0 - Romney 52.0 - Romney +8
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 - 1056 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 48.0 - Romney +3
Reuters/Ipsos 9/7 - 9/10 - 873 Likely Voters Obama 42.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney +9
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 - 826 Likely Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 52.0 - Romney +7
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 - 875 Registered Voters Obama 45.0 - Romney 53.0 - Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 - 808 Registered Voters Obama 41.0 - Romney 50.0 - Romney +9
ARG 9/4 - 9/6 - 1200 Likely Voters Obama 43.0 - Romney 53.0 - Romney +10
Average of all polls - Obama 43.0 - Romney 51.0 - Romney + 8
For those who have been discouraged by the polling take heart when polls are balanced and Romney is actually leading. Of course as always the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. But the bottom line is don't fall for the media skewing of this election and know that the American people know failure when they see it and vote with their pocket book. Obama IS a failure and everyone is hurting in the pocket book which places Obama as a one term failed President.
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 2:50 AM
2 Comments:
God. You racists must really the Black man in the White House to come up with BS like that. Pathetic!
Intrerest rates at all time lows, stock market nearing all time highs, taxes on the wealthy at all time lows. Ya, they want you to believe Obama is taking this economy to the brink while they continue munching caviar out of 50 gallon drums. The rich keep getting richer under Obama, just as they did under Bush. Obama is telling them the price of admission is going up, so they want us little people to feel like we'd somehow be affected if that happened. (we wouldn't). Hilarious by the way, that we now discover Romney's dad was one of the 47% freeloaders. Apparently govt assistance doesn't always lead to govt dependence after all.
According to Mark Solheim we all need to be afraid of President Obama because he lacks the type of leadership that evidently the GOP will provide. You see the kool-aid Mr. Solheim and his Republican buddies drink has this unique affect of totally disrupting their short term memory. It’s the same kool-aid that was served at the Republican convention a few weeks ago which the affects thereof provided such hardcore amnesia that our last Republican President wasn’t even mentioned. Imagine that? Somehow Mark Solheim believes deep in his core that Mitt Romney will save our great nation. Again, please put the kool-aid down. If you have been paying any attention to the Romney campaign it’s obvious he’s not ready for prime-time. The Mitt Romney campaign should remind us all of 2000-2008 (RIP) and what happened. It's said that the worst job in the circus is cleaning up after the elephants. As we move forward we can’t ignore the messes they left. PDB’s ignored - "Dead or Alive" - Pre-emptive war - Iraq "will be a cakewalk" - Weapons of mass destruction - "Bring 'em on." - "I'm the decider." Troops with no body armor - "Mission Accomplished." - Osama bin Forgotten - The Patriot Act - Abu Ghraib - Gitmo - Torture memos - Walter Reed Hospital scandal - Medals of Freedom for the disaster in Iraq - Vice President’s office orchestrated the outing of covert CIA agent
That's so cute, but I'm sorry, but the real pollsters have factored in likely voters vs. registered voters vs. cell phone users vs. disenfranchised voter states when analyzing polls and it's lookin real bad for the Presidency and Senate for the GOP.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
I've read enough of your blog to realize that facts and reason don't matter much to you, but when I come back after election day to rub it in your face, you'll need something clever to come back with.
Post a Comment
<< Home