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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Friday, August 24, 2012

OBAMA LOSES BIG ACCORDING TO UNIV OF COLORADO WHO CORRECTLY PREDICTED SINCE 1980

A study conducted by The University of Colorado that has been made since the 1980 Presidential election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter has predicted that not only will Obama lose in November but lose in a landslide. The study conducted by political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1980 including the 2000 election in which they predicted Al Gore winning the popular vote and George Bush taking the Electoral College and thus the Presidency.

The study takes into account economic stress factors, unemployment on both the State and National level and per capita income among other factors creating an Electoral College model as well as a popular vote model. Taking all of these factors into account Bickers and Berry come to the conclusion that Obama is in serious Electoral trouble and will only win 218 from the Electoral College far short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency.

The model also predicts that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote with 52.9% to Obama's 47.1%.  The model has exactly predicted the last eight Presidential elections and in the 2012 race predicts that Romney will pick up several States that Obama won in 2008. According to Bickers and Berry, "What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida."

Colorado is currently polling with a slight Obama lead but the model shows that on election day that lead will fall to Romney with a 51.9% defeat of Obama's 48.1% in the only swing state that now has Obama in a solid lead of about 5 points. All of the other swing states currently poll Romney ahead or in the case of Ohio a tie with Obama.

For those who are concerned about the false accusations that the Obama campaign are constantly leveling at Romney and their affect with voters, according to Bickers these have little real affect when it comes to actual voting.  Election prediction models "suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy," Bickers said. "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."

With a 100% record of correctly predicted the result of Presidential elections for the last 22 years the forecast model designed by Bickers and Berry in extremely bad news for Barack Obama but heartening and exciting news for the salvation of our Nation from Obama and his what looks to be coming defeat on November 6, 2012.

Ken Taylor

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