The Liberal Lie, The Conservative Truth

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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

OBAMA LIMPS ACROSS THE FINISH LINE

By the numbers Barack Obama clinched the Democrat nomination following a win in Montana and a surge of Super Delegates who, seeing the hand writing on the wall finally made a commitment. Hillary Clinton won a rather decisive victory in the other Primary State of South Dakota.

After the victory speeches had ended and the day had somewhat calmed, though Obama had the nomination by the numbers, Clinton made no concession speech nor did she acknowledge that Obama had surpassed the magic number. She told supporters that she would be meeting with her advisers over the next few days indicating that she would still be around.

Clinton according to AP indicated to NY lawmakers that she was, "open, " to the VP spot but gave no indication that she was actively campaigning for it. Obama has time before selecting his VEEP and whether he taps Clinton or not remains to be seen.

Many try to spin Obama's victory as decisive but in reality he limped across the finish line and if you take into account the actual vote totals, Obama lost the popular vote to Clinton by more than 286, 000 with Michigan included in the mix. In fact had it not been for the screwball way that the DNC proportions the delegate count Clinton would have had a decisive victory over Obama in both popular vote and delegate count.

Over the past several weeks Clinton has won more primaries than Obama but his lead because of earlier Primary voting was large enough to sustain a victory for the nomination. The long Primary season has also taken its toll on the Obama campaign. Though raising more money than Clinton the Obama camp has also had to spend an excessive amount of cash on advertising and it is beginning to effect Obama's war chest.

Obama also takes the nomination with a considerable amount of controversy surrounding him because of his associations with several people including Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers and others. As the nominee the scrutiny will escalate which will not sit well with the Illinois Senator who has already balked at the scrutiny that has taken place thus far which is minimal compared to that in which he will receive before the General Election.

Both candidates are talking about party unity and while they may try to put on a unified face for the Convention cameras, behind the scene and with the rank and file the situation is anything but unity. At the DNC meetings seating the Florida and Michigan delegates last weekend the animosity for the party and the way the primaries have been handled was very evident and large numbers of Clinton supporters have indicated they will not vote for Obama either sitting out the election or voting for McCain.

As far as the VP nod with Clinton as number two in order to , "unify, " the party, Clinton could very well be a liability for Obama because of Clinton's polarizing effect with likely voters for a General Election and the fact that if she is the number two Obama would have to put up with Bill both during the campaign and in the White House if he were to win the Presidency.

Also he loses his claim of being the candidate for, "change, " by bringing on politics from the nineties and two politicians from what he calls the , "old, " Democrats. Both the Bill factor and the old school idea may very well keep Obama from offering the VEEP to Clinton.

But because Hillary garnered so many delegates and popular vote she has a considerable amount of leverage in shaping the platform and forcing Obama to adopt her key policies of Universal Health Care, (Hillary Care), and give away entitlements that have not been touted by Obama.

She could still have leverage with the Super Delegates at the Convention if the poll numbers for Obama against McCain continue to show either a tie or a lead for McCain. That combined with most Electoral break downs showing McCain winning over Obama could still give Clinton a small but open door for the official nomination at the Convention. Super Delegates can change their mind until their vote is actually cast.

Unless she changes her stripes, don't expect a concession speech from Hillary until the final vote is cast at the Convention in August. If she concedes before then she releases her delegates and her leverage at the Convention and she is one politician whose loyalties for self are far stronger than those for the DNC.

Ken Taylor

13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Obama chose anyone other than Clinton as his running mate, that might be his biggest mistake. He would be running the battle all over again; with 45% of Democrats not supporting him, his chance of winning is almost nil.

11:37 AM, June 04, 2008  
Blogger Rob said...

It doesn't matter whether he limped or not - he won and is the nominee. I certainly do not agree with your characterization because in reality it wasn't close as I have said for months.

Within the next 2 weeks Clinton - it not sooner - Hillary will give a concession speech. She is just waiting until she works out some understanding with Obama about a prime speaking slot at the convention, a cabinet position, etc.

He isn't going to take Clinton. She may be promised a cabinet spot, but there is no way she is going to be the VP candidate. Obama is all about change and moving forward - it makes no sense to add Clinton to the ticket.

There may be some Dems who move toward McCain, but there will be many crossover Republicans and it will be a wash. Far more new Dems will come out and while it seems close right now, McCain will be soundly defeated.

Dems will also make significant gain in the House and the Senate. Republicans are going to have to do some soul searching after they get devastated in the upcoming elections.

11:46 AM, June 04, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

can't mess with destiny!

5:54 PM, June 04, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ba_rack Hussein Obama Update: Nation of Islam activists on Obama camp payroll. Former insider worried by senator's connection to Louis Farrakhan, members of radical group .

All I need to know about Ba_rack Hussein Obama -



http://www.barackobamaassociates.info



His fellow associates are like socialist, communist, and people that follow Sharia law (Islamic law). Scares the heck out of me. How a person like him make it this fair in national politics is unbelievable. After looking at this template and reading the capsules, I see how he made it this far. Ba_rack Hussein Obama would have to cut off my right arm to get my vote. I am a moderate to conservative democrat voting for McCain in the general elction should Ba_rack Hussein Obama be the democratic nominee. And I have never voted for a Bush and always knew he was one of the worst modern day Presidents we have ever had. If anything we, the American people, can not afford another naive, inexperienced person like Bush when he first got in office as President.



Just SAY NO to ... Ba_rack Hussein Obama.

8:57 PM, June 04, 2008  
Anonymous Seth said...

If Hussein agrees to hold those town hall debates proposed by McCain, he'll have his touchas handed to him as he'll actually have to deliver more than his trademark "hope" and "change" rhetoric.

The only place both will run close will be on the economy, about which McCain professes to know little and Obama, if he is honest, will endorse taxing the bloody hell out of the very entities that create jobs in the U.S.

But that would fit the mold of any socialist: The higher the unemployment rate, the more people can be drawn into dependency on the largesse of government.

11:16 PM, June 04, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Hillary was robbed!!!

What about Florida and Michigan?

I hear lawsuits coming soon on that one.

I say Hillary should take this fight all the way to the Democrat Convention!!

12:31 AM, June 05, 2008  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

McCain will be soundly defeated.

Rob,

I think anything can happen in this election.

What were your predictions, right before the 2004 Election? I was surprised and relieved when Bush won reelection.

2:28 AM, June 05, 2008  
Blogger Rob said...

Word, I cannot remember any specific predictions that I made before 2004. That is the honest truth. I can say that I knew it was going to be close and I expected Kerry to win, but I certainly was not surprised that he lost. I looked it up and I wasn't blogging at the time.

However, if you look back at what I said about 2006 on this blog you will see that unlike Ken and most of the righties on this blog I predicted big losses for the Republicans. Turned out I was right.

In many ways, this year is shaping up even worse for the Republicans than 2006. They have many, many more Senate seats to defend, Iraq is even more unpopular, the economy is weaker, and Bush's numbers are even worse.

Dems are going to make significant gains in the House and Senate. Right now, it is close between Obama and McCain, but now that Hillary is out there is plenty of time to convince Hillary's supporters to get on board with Obama. And, now McCain will start to have an actual opponent against him.

I am sure Obama's camp is very happy about the town hall meetings and cannot wait. McCain will look tired and will have to defend very unpopular stands on the war and his ignorance of economic issues. He looked moribund and had a small, listless crowd on Tuesday night as he ripped Obama. Then, later that night viewers could see the difference with Obama - huge, raucous crowd and a significantly higher level of energy from Obama. It matters.

11:10 AM, June 05, 2008  
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