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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Sunday, December 16, 2007

ELECTION 08 - THE VOTERS STARTING TO PAY ATTENTION - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY

It is mid December and we have been suffering through more than one year of Presidential politics and a total of more than two years of constant campaigning. The 2008 Presidential election is the first time since FDR first ran for President where either an incumbent President or Vice President are not on the ticket and as is well known everybody with an ambition for the White House threw their hat into the ring. Most extremely early.

As a result the campaign season between mid-terms and the Presidential election never ended which has made a somewhat weary public where politics are concerned. Sure, political junkies like we bloggers and those who are news hounds have enjoyed having something to continually talk about or write about but the average, " Joe and Jane Voter, " did not care whether Rudy or Mitt, Fred or Mike was in the lead for the GOP and on the Dem side of the political coin most had no clue who Obama was and Hillary was the former First Lady and they think she might be a Senator.

Now we find ourselves less than a month from the Iowa Caucus and right after that the primary season kicks into full swing with New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida to start with culminating with Super Tuesday on February fifth leaving only a scattered few states left with primaries.

With Presidential politics now getting close to an actual vote, more average voters are beginning to sit up and take notice of the candidates. Without an incumbent the average voter who does not participate in primary votes are watching a little more closely since there are so many candidates to choose from. In most election years with primaries, many wait until the nominee is known before watching and choosing, but this year with such a wide field more are watching the primaries than is usual.

As such the names who have been dominating since last year, Rudy for the GOP and Hillary for the Dems are starting to take major hits in the polls, while up until now virtual unknowns like Huckabee and to a lesser extent Obama are starting to surge in the early states and nationally. In this writers opinion much of this is due to average Joe's and Jane's paying more attention to the candidates.

Adding to that, in the GOP, conservatives looking for someone to fit the bill as another Reagan and Dems getting tired of constant Clinton and leads as we approach primary season are shifting dramatically. While Huckabee is not even close as another Reagan his stance on moral issues plays well with especially Christian conservatives and this has accounted for his surge in the polls. Now that his record is being scrutinized this to will slow as the truth about his spending and taxing habits as Arkansas Governor are better known and his weak stance on illegal immigration is revealed.

This still leaves a hole in the GOP for someone to step into over the next few weeks. Fred Thompson, who I support, had a great showing during the Iowa debate, especially when he slammed the idiot moderator for her , "show of hands, " question on Global Warming. How much momentum he receives from this has yet to be seen, but he did attract a good bit of positive attention as a strong leader and conservative candidate in the after math.

Romney and Rudy are still dangling as their earlier momentum has ended and their showing in the first primaries will play greatly in their vote count on Super Tuesday. McCain to has lost the small momentum he had several weeks ago and whether he can garner enough votes to be a contender through the primaries is rather doubtful.

On the GOP side of the 2008 coin, we may very well be looking at the final decision for the nominee waiting for the Convention in September. If so it will be the first time since Reagan and Ford fought it out for the nomination in 1976 that the nominee was not a given before the GOP met. If this is the case there will be a much greater interest in the Convention and the fact that it is being held in September well after the Democrats meet in August will give the GOP nominee a definite advantage going into the final push before November.

A brief comment about the Democrats has a lot to do with the Oprah factor. Obama has surged since Oprah started campaigning for him. This combined with the Hillary debate gaffs, the scandals and the fact that Democrats seem to be growing Clinton weary is beginning to paint an Obama picture for the primaries and the nomination. Edwards is , well Edwards and though showing a strong third in most states and nationally he might as well get used to being behind Obama and Hillary because that is most likely where he will remain.

Over all the primary season is shaping into a very interesting run for both the GOP and Democrat nomination. The coronation of Rudy and Hillary that seemed to be a lock as little as six months ago has faded and the race is not only tight in both parties but still very much up for grabs by any of the top tier candidates.

Ken Taylor

13 Comments:

Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

Obama has surged since Oprah started campaigning for him. This combined with the Hillary debate gaffs, the scandals and the fact that Democrats seem to be growing Clinton weary

I believe you are correct. Even though I would think people don't base their decision on celebrity endorsement, it does garner the candidate more attention, thanks to the celeb. And I think that does make followers of a celebrity take a harder look at a candidate being endorsed.

I'm not sure I'd agree that Obama fell in the camp of "virtual unknown" by your average joe and jane voter. Since his DNC speech in 2004, he's been a media darling and the rock star of the Democratic Party. I've heard his name on the lips of many people who are merely parroting the hype that has surrounded him.

7:03 PM, December 15, 2007  
Blogger Obob said...

I remember Obama's 04 coming out party. Heck, I was impressed. The media swooned and spoke like a moderate. He will evolve into a lefty the more he needs votes and kisses the ring, but one step at a time. That or he hid it well.
As for the GOP run, my oldest(age 7) picked Rudy and my middle (age 4) picked Mitt. So you have my guess as well. My little man said Fred according to my 4 year old.

9:05 AM, December 16, 2007  
Blogger Mike's America said...

Ken: No comment on the Huckabee insult to President Bush and his "arrogant, bunker mentality."

It was an offensive betrayal of all of us who have supported President Bush against the unprincipled oppositiont that would just as soon see the U.S. lose the war in Iraq.

When it comes to Huckabee: JUST SAY NO!

1:47 PM, December 17, 2007  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Mike, I had thought that Ron Paul was the only one I could NOT vote for. Huckabee is falling into that category also! I still don't believe he will keep up the momentum he has and when we get closer to the primaries he will be in third, maybe lower.

3:46 PM, December 17, 2007  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

I think all these people and polls are wrong, and/or will change.

I feel a bit of a momentum growing for Fred Thompson since the last debate and he seems like he's got his old gumtion back, and I just would'nt count Fred out just yet.

I saw Fred On Fox and Friends this morning, and whichever one was interviewing him they even noticed that he seemed to be getting his vim and vigor back.

I think he's the kind of horse (If you know anything about horse racing or jockies) who hangs back in the back for a while as not to get to tired and then pours it on toward the end.

I guess we will see :-)

4:33 PM, December 17, 2007  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

I know I shouldnt say this but,

Ya think Obama and Oprah have somethin goin on?

I mean nothing the Democrats do surprises me anymore.

9:34 PM, December 17, 2007  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

Marie,

Whatever on earth gave you that notion?!?!

2:37 AM, December 18, 2007  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Isnt it getting obvious Word? lol

And right in front of his wife?

And where's Steadman?

1:13 PM, December 18, 2007  
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