THE CANDIDATE OF THE MONTH IS.......THE SUNDAY COMMENTARTY
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is surging in the polls. At the end of October into most of November Mitt Romney was surging in the polls. In September Fred Thompson was surging in the polls.
Are these surges a trend for the candidates or are they a picture of an electorate in the GOP who still have not decided who they want to vote for ? On any given day the undecided in the GOP polling is around 22 -24 %. At no time throughout this long campaign year has any GOP candidate held polling numbers out of the 20's with the leader in the polls usually hovering around 25%.
While several candidates have had surges in the polls and have garnered headlines as a result, not one candidate even Rudy Giuliani, who has lead most of the year, had a strong lead or even anything close to a majority.
Part of this of course is the fact that there are a large number of candidates for voters to choose from. Yet those who are low in the polls are polling in the range of 5% or less and even with those low numbers, the top tier cannot get out of the 20's with most in the mid to upper teens.
While pundits talk about the candidate of the month who is experiencing the greatest surge in support, it seems clear that GOP voters are not at all sure of any of the candidates and as such seem to be shifting their support when one candidate makes a statement or proposes a policy that is somewhat in line with the voters political beliefs.
Conservatives are looking for a candidate to support that follows the Reagan example while the , "religious right, " is looking for a candidate whose stance on the moral issues best fit with their beliefs. The moderates are looking for fiscal responsibility and not so much as particular on the social issues.
This diverse break down of the GOP voter leaves a wide open opportunity for a candidate to step forward in a strong conservative manner that satisfies the majority of GOP voters, yet to this point even Fred Thompson whose conservative credentials are stronger than any of the top tier candidates has not caught on with the electorate.
The Romney surge that was in place in October and early November has faded as I believe the Huckabee surge that is taking place now will, most likely by the end of December if it follows the trend of the candidate of the month.
Analyst and pundits try as they may to predict who is going to come out on top by the end of Super Tuesday on February 5th, but just as they seem to think they have a grasp on the pulse of GOP voters the tide changes and another candidate experiences a surge of support and all of the analysis goes right out the window.
This is one reason why I believe that come the morning of the 6th of February the GOP nomination could very well still be in question. Most of the states that are in the early stages before the 5th are split as far as the top position is concerned in the polls and the large number of states on the 5th are showing the same diversity of leaders in the polling.
It may very well boil down to a close race between as many as four candidates, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and a toss up for the fourth between Huckabee and McCain. The primaries may just only narrow the field down to three or four and send the final choice for the Republican nominee to the convention in September.
With more than a month left before Super Tuesday and around a month left for the first primaries, the choice in the GOP is still very much up in the air and come February GOP voters may very well not know who the nominee will be. A clear leader has yet to emerge and the undecided vote has yet to commit. January will be a very interesting month in GOP politics!
Ken Taylor
Are these surges a trend for the candidates or are they a picture of an electorate in the GOP who still have not decided who they want to vote for ? On any given day the undecided in the GOP polling is around 22 -24 %. At no time throughout this long campaign year has any GOP candidate held polling numbers out of the 20's with the leader in the polls usually hovering around 25%.
While several candidates have had surges in the polls and have garnered headlines as a result, not one candidate even Rudy Giuliani, who has lead most of the year, had a strong lead or even anything close to a majority.
Part of this of course is the fact that there are a large number of candidates for voters to choose from. Yet those who are low in the polls are polling in the range of 5% or less and even with those low numbers, the top tier cannot get out of the 20's with most in the mid to upper teens.
While pundits talk about the candidate of the month who is experiencing the greatest surge in support, it seems clear that GOP voters are not at all sure of any of the candidates and as such seem to be shifting their support when one candidate makes a statement or proposes a policy that is somewhat in line with the voters political beliefs.
Conservatives are looking for a candidate to support that follows the Reagan example while the , "religious right, " is looking for a candidate whose stance on the moral issues best fit with their beliefs. The moderates are looking for fiscal responsibility and not so much as particular on the social issues.
This diverse break down of the GOP voter leaves a wide open opportunity for a candidate to step forward in a strong conservative manner that satisfies the majority of GOP voters, yet to this point even Fred Thompson whose conservative credentials are stronger than any of the top tier candidates has not caught on with the electorate.
The Romney surge that was in place in October and early November has faded as I believe the Huckabee surge that is taking place now will, most likely by the end of December if it follows the trend of the candidate of the month.
Analyst and pundits try as they may to predict who is going to come out on top by the end of Super Tuesday on February 5th, but just as they seem to think they have a grasp on the pulse of GOP voters the tide changes and another candidate experiences a surge of support and all of the analysis goes right out the window.
This is one reason why I believe that come the morning of the 6th of February the GOP nomination could very well still be in question. Most of the states that are in the early stages before the 5th are split as far as the top position is concerned in the polls and the large number of states on the 5th are showing the same diversity of leaders in the polling.
It may very well boil down to a close race between as many as four candidates, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and a toss up for the fourth between Huckabee and McCain. The primaries may just only narrow the field down to three or four and send the final choice for the Republican nominee to the convention in September.
With more than a month left before Super Tuesday and around a month left for the first primaries, the choice in the GOP is still very much up in the air and come February GOP voters may very well not know who the nominee will be. A clear leader has yet to emerge and the undecided vote has yet to commit. January will be a very interesting month in GOP politics!
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 4:47 AM
5 Comments:
"Are these surges a trend for the candidates or are they a picture of an electorate in the GOP who still have not decided who they want to vote for ?"
Yes.
You have a good outlook on this Ken. I'd say it's very important for you and your fellow Fred Heads to stay focused and not get discouraged with this boomlet for Huckabee.
In the latest batch of polls which confirmed Huckabee's astonishing surge in SC I noticed an uptick for Rudy at the same time. Timing in politics is everything, so if another candidate can manage to time his surge just before election day, he wins.
I also think that "the Huck" will now have to face the total scrutiny and negative press stories that Rudy, Mitt and Fred have already gone through. That might alter the balance too, and at a critical juncture.
Ken--Do you know someone who volunteers for Fred's campaign that I could contact to interview? I interviewed a Rudy campaign guy today on my internet radio show and I'd like to interview a Fred guy.
It's kinda frightening. In all my years as a voter, by now I would have a clear choice for president. Now.... not so much. I start liking one a little and then... they do something that just turns me off.
I get less and less excited about this up coming election on a daily basis. I may just vote for my dog.
Thanks Mike, this year may be the first time since Reagan/Ford in 1976 that the nomination may not be known until the convention.
Dee, I'll see if I can hook you up with a Fred volunteer.
Jenn, don't get discouraged. This is an unusual election year. Remember it is the first time since FDR ran for his first run that an incumbant President or VP was not on the ticket. So it only stands to reason that there is a lot of diversity in candidates.
Take it from a life long GOP , (since 1976), the main point is to defeat the Democrats and work for strong conservative leadership in both the White House and the Congress!
Jenn: No reason to get down on the campaign. It's not always a pleasant process, but it's the best one we have. The primaries really haven't started yet, so hold off voting for your dog for a couple more months.
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