OBAMA FALLING TO MITTMENTUM
Without sound overly optimistic about the 2012 election, while the polls are trending more and more toward Romney, I believe polling in this race it not as close as the numbers show. Most polling of likely voters is giving Romney about a four point lead over Obama with a consistent showing at or above 50% which is a key benchmark since candidates who reach it do not lose a Presidential election.
Most battleground states have Romney either ahead, tied or well within the margin of error. Several states considered second tier like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which were never considered battleground swing states are now not only within reach with polls in Michigan even at 47% and Pennsylvania polls have Romney up by four.
While polling has balanced out to some extent from several weeks ago when almost every poll had as much as a +10 to a ridiculous +14 favoring Democrats in polling samples, polls are still over sampling Democrats hanging on to the idea that 2012 will be similar to 2008 which had an unusually large percentage of Democrats voting.
An average year has Democrats either even or only a percentage point or two higher turn out than Republicans and Independents average a couple of points less. Average years like 2004 which had Republicans around 32% of voter turnout, Democrats about 33% and Independents around 30% is a better gauge for polling than 2008 which is the gauge pollsters used for most of this election year. 2008 had an unusually large Democrat turnout slightly above 39% with Republicans around 32% and an unusually low Independent turnout around 24%.
Using this gauge as a sampling polling has favored Obama most of the year. With Romney surging in recent weeks because of voters finally getting to know him for who he is and what he stands for rather than the bias from the media against him and the negative ads from the Obama campaign that painted Romney as a greedy monster, pollsters have been forced to balance polling samples since all indicators have been trending toward Romney.
But even with these indicators polling samples in general are still heavy Democrat with around a 34% to 35% sampling compared to a 31% sampling of Republicans and a 29% average sampling of Independents. Placing both Republicans and Independents still at a disadvantage in polling samples and Democrats at an advantage. Yet Romney is still surging in the polls and Obama fading.
Adding to this polling gap are two factors that show the polling samples, though better than earlier in the year are still skewed and not indicative of the reality of 2012. Enthusiasm with Republicans is extremely high while low for Democrats. The youth vote that was a larger percentage of the unusually high turnout for Democrats in 2008 is showing little enthusiasm for Obama and as such will likely return to its normal very low turnout.
All of these factors indicate that Romney in reality has a larger lead nationally than is shown in polling and in states that are tied or show him behind within the margin of error are likely in reality Romney leads. Also traditionally the 2%-3% of voters who do not choose a candidate until the moment they walk into the voting booth vote for the challenger. All of this equates to a Romney landslide rather than a tight election determined by the vote in only one state that pundits have picked as Ohio.
Once again none of this is taking for granted that Romney is a shoe in but when looking at all of the factors the fear that is haunting a, I dare say, majority of Americans that Obama will somehow steal this election and find some satisfaction that Obama is fading and Romney is in much better shape than polling shows. This does not mean we sit back and relax but on the contrary we step up and fight even harder since we have an advantage and use that advantage to insure that Obama is soundly defeated and with him Harry Reid removed as Senate Majority Leader to Minority Leader and a super majority in the House. We cannot rest until the last vote is counted and Obama is fired, but we can also fight with enthusiasm as we understand that he IS losing and have faith in our fellow Americans as we work together to write his pink slip with our vote on November 6.
Ken Taylor
Most battleground states have Romney either ahead, tied or well within the margin of error. Several states considered second tier like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which were never considered battleground swing states are now not only within reach with polls in Michigan even at 47% and Pennsylvania polls have Romney up by four.
While polling has balanced out to some extent from several weeks ago when almost every poll had as much as a +10 to a ridiculous +14 favoring Democrats in polling samples, polls are still over sampling Democrats hanging on to the idea that 2012 will be similar to 2008 which had an unusually large percentage of Democrats voting.
An average year has Democrats either even or only a percentage point or two higher turn out than Republicans and Independents average a couple of points less. Average years like 2004 which had Republicans around 32% of voter turnout, Democrats about 33% and Independents around 30% is a better gauge for polling than 2008 which is the gauge pollsters used for most of this election year. 2008 had an unusually large Democrat turnout slightly above 39% with Republicans around 32% and an unusually low Independent turnout around 24%.
Using this gauge as a sampling polling has favored Obama most of the year. With Romney surging in recent weeks because of voters finally getting to know him for who he is and what he stands for rather than the bias from the media against him and the negative ads from the Obama campaign that painted Romney as a greedy monster, pollsters have been forced to balance polling samples since all indicators have been trending toward Romney.
But even with these indicators polling samples in general are still heavy Democrat with around a 34% to 35% sampling compared to a 31% sampling of Republicans and a 29% average sampling of Independents. Placing both Republicans and Independents still at a disadvantage in polling samples and Democrats at an advantage. Yet Romney is still surging in the polls and Obama fading.
Adding to this polling gap are two factors that show the polling samples, though better than earlier in the year are still skewed and not indicative of the reality of 2012. Enthusiasm with Republicans is extremely high while low for Democrats. The youth vote that was a larger percentage of the unusually high turnout for Democrats in 2008 is showing little enthusiasm for Obama and as such will likely return to its normal very low turnout.
All of these factors indicate that Romney in reality has a larger lead nationally than is shown in polling and in states that are tied or show him behind within the margin of error are likely in reality Romney leads. Also traditionally the 2%-3% of voters who do not choose a candidate until the moment they walk into the voting booth vote for the challenger. All of this equates to a Romney landslide rather than a tight election determined by the vote in only one state that pundits have picked as Ohio.
Once again none of this is taking for granted that Romney is a shoe in but when looking at all of the factors the fear that is haunting a, I dare say, majority of Americans that Obama will somehow steal this election and find some satisfaction that Obama is fading and Romney is in much better shape than polling shows. This does not mean we sit back and relax but on the contrary we step up and fight even harder since we have an advantage and use that advantage to insure that Obama is soundly defeated and with him Harry Reid removed as Senate Majority Leader to Minority Leader and a super majority in the House. We cannot rest until the last vote is counted and Obama is fired, but we can also fight with enthusiasm as we understand that he IS losing and have faith in our fellow Americans as we work together to write his pink slip with our vote on November 6.
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 3:43 AM
4 Comments:
The thing about people like you is, what do you do when things don't turn out the way you're expecting them to? Do you admit you were wrong? Will you delete all these posts that are proclaiming an all but certain victory for Romney after he loses? You must, on some level, know you're wrong. But you won't change your methods of gauging reality to keep yourself from doing it again, will you?
Poll analysts factor in all of this stuff you're talking about. You're not the only one thinking these deep thoughts, dummy. It's incredibly arrogant.
try this:
www.fivethirtyeight.com
Anonymous,
Leaving aside for a minute what the polls say, consider these facts about Obama's reign:
Real unemployment of 14.7%
The lowest labor force participation rate in at least 25 years
A debt of $ 16 trillion and growing with $ 1 trillion annual deficits the new normal
A foreign policy in tatters: Russia, China no longer respect us; we've thrown Israel and our Eastern European allies under the bus; Iran closer than ever to the bomb; we've abandoned Iraq and Afghanistan; Al Qaeda is resurgent, etc.
And last but not least, BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI
Other than the above, Obama has done a great job!
And you still support this guy?!!
Dennis
"A 1/32 Cherokee Tea Party guy having fun"
"If four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal." -Barack Obama on COMEDY CENTRAL with Jon Stewart.
Interesting response Dennis. Did you notice I didn't give a single scintilla of a hint of whom I supported? Perhaps I'm just someone who's married only to facts...
What does that say about your ability to judge when a statement precludes impartiality?
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