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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

BUSH APPROVAL RATINGS MIRROR GAS PRICES


The left has been claiming that the falling approval ratings of President Bush are due to the situation in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, Iran, the supposed scandals that unsuccessfully have tried to hang on the administration, his , "failed, " economy that is the most robust in decades and a myriad of other perceived reasons. To the right is an interesting graph that seems to indicate the true reason for the President's falling approval rating. The red line is the Bush approval rating and the blue line is an inverted graph of the gasoline price index. Both lines on the graph begin in February 2001 shortly after the President first took office. It is amazing how they seem to mirror each other. This would indicate that all of the rhetoric that the left and the media spews continually about why the President's rating with the people are falling has nothing to do with the reasons that have been touted by the left but the perception that the rising gas prices are the fault of the President. Of course no President controls what gas prices do because there are a myriad of reasons for price increases including supply and demand which is higher that it has ever been worldwide and oil speculators and their over reaction in the markets which have been the major contributor to much of the price increase. The speculators in the past have always over reacted to world situations then eventually the market would correct itself thus dropping the price. Since 2004 the futures market has had its typical over reaction but has not compensated to balance the price which has caused a huge increase. Adjusting for inflation though what we are paying at the pump is still about $1.00 less than the cost of a gallon of gas in the seventies when the last major increases took place. With the inflationary adjustment and comparing the cost of a gallon of gas today to that of the seventies the price of a gallon would need to reach $3.70 in order to match the gas problems then. Of course none of this eases the crunch on the wallet when we fill up at the pump. Increased exploration, drilling domestically, increased refining capabilities, alternative fuels such as nuclear power and less dependency on foreign oil is a long term answer but for the short term the cry of price gouging is as false as the day is long. Decreasing the demand is the only answer that will in the near future cause a decrease in the cost of oil. Additionally wrenching in the out of control futures market will greatly reduce prices. But to the President's critics maybe a re-evaluation of the real reason behind his approval rating is in order. Of course this won't end the attacks but at least a better perception of the true thoughts of the American people who still as a whole back Bush will be the result.

Ken Taylor

16 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

Your analysis is ridiculous. Coincidence and correlation does not mean causality. Using your logic I could make an argument that we should outlaw all candy cane sales so that we can cut the suicide rate in this country. During the Christmas season suicide rates go up, and at the same time candy cane sales are up.

Also, gas prices rose all through the 1990s, why did Clinton leave office with a 57 percent approval rating?

Finally, by what measure(s) do you believe we have the most robust economy in decades? GDP growth was faster under Clinton, unemployment fell from 7.5% to 4%, under Clinton (it has risen under Bush). The budget and trade deficits have exploded under Bush, we had a budget surplus and were actually paying down debt under Clinton.

Bush has increased the national debt from $5.7 trillion to $8.4 trillion. Foreigners now hold more than $2.2 trillion of our government debt. Clinton was reducing the amount owed to foreigners and had lowered it to about $1 trillion.

10:05 PM, April 19, 2006  
Blogger Mike's America said...

Oh put a cork in it Rob... We're tired of that five year old WHINE!

That's a great chart Ken. I hope Karl Rove gets a copy.

And it's amazing that our economy shows the strength that it does despite these high gas prices.

And YES, Rob... The economy has finally recovered from the Clinton induced recession.

10:55 PM, April 21, 2006  
Blogger Rob said...

Facts? Your ignorance really shows. We were paying down debt and had a $250 billion budget surplus the last year of Clinton's presidency. It is not like he left the cupboard bare.

Show me a President that had gas prices go down during their presidency. They went up under Clinton, Bush Sr., Reagan, Carter, etc. That gas chart is the same for every president, yet approval ratings are different. Hmmm, I wonder why that is? Like I said coincidence and correlation is not causality.

Mike, let's see what happens the next three years, because apparently you now believe that it is all Bush now.

The U.S. economy is growing slowly and is racked with debt. It is funded by more than $2 trillion in foreign-owned debt. Bush's fiscal policies are a disaster just like his energy policy. Bush got his Republican friends in Congress to pass his energy bill last August and look at what happened to gas prices. Whether you want to believe it or not, that bill included $16.2 billion in tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal companies. It was a giveaway to firms that have record profits and are gouging Americans.

9:53 PM, April 22, 2006  
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11:15 PM, April 26, 2006  
Blogger Vern1966 said...

I can tell you that, personally, the last reason I'd cite for my disapproval of Bush would be his influence on the price of gas, which I think is marginal. What he HAS influenced is a boondoggle by the oil companies by way of billions of dollars in tax incentives and subsidies. Add that to the long list of grievances that chronicle his ineptitude, incompetence, and corruption, and you can see the REAL correlation, and what a growing number of Americans are all too belatedly seeing -- the truth.

2:28 PM, April 27, 2006  
Blogger Vern1966 said...

Your underestimation of the public's ability to see this administration for what it really is, however, is reasonable. After all, they did vote him into office.

Although I suspect that that election was, like everything else about Bush & Co., a sham as well.

2:33 PM, April 27, 2006  
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12:16 PM, May 09, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rob said:
>>During the Christmas season
>>suicide rates go up

not true. just another of the "i heard that..." unsubstantiated, untrue 'facts' that the 'the sky is falling' paranoia crowd throws around in order to justify some skewed result.

show some facts and actual data and i'll believe that the sky is falling. otherwise, you're talking out of your a$$ (not just you and not just about this point)...

1:23 AM, May 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...not that i like paying $3+ per gallon of gas, but let's put the blame where it belongs (i.e. not the 'Bush is evil and everything he does is evil and cheney is evil and the iraq war is about hallibuton profits and they're all an evil dictatorial regime' drivel)

1:28 AM, May 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

vern1966 said:
>>I suspect that that election was, like
>>everything else about Bush & Co., a sham as well

for four years it was "Bush was selected, not elected!"
then he got re-elected.
then it became "there had to be voter fraud".

how pathetic! talk about sore losers...

1:44 AM, May 15, 2006  
Anonymous The Truth said...

Total BS. There is no need to speculate what the reasons are. When the polls are conducted they actually ask “why”. And then they tell you.

“67 percent rate his handling of ethics in government negatively”
“65 percent say the economy is in bad shape”
“68 percent say the nation is on the ‘wrong track’,"
“52-percent majority of Americans say they do not trust President Bush to make the right decisions during a domestic crisis”
“52 percent-do not trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis”

61% of the people polled believe high gas prices are due to “unethical behavior” by the gas companies but only 13% list it as a reason for their disapproval ov Bush. So your reasoning is total BS. So stop wasting your time speculating and coming up with lame excuses.

2:29 PM, May 16, 2006  
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