OBAMA DEFEATS MCCAIN - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY
Before many of you have an attack because of reading the title of this post read on a little further in order to fully understand the title. This particular title is a 2008 similarity to a newspaper headline from the Chicago Tribune made famous in 1948.
Election day in 1948 fell on November second placing President Harry Truman against New York Governor Thomas Dewey. The 1948 campaign had been a hard fought campaign between Dewey a well known liberal, (yes liberal), Republican who had the eyes and ears of the media, ( sound familiar ?), and incumbent President Harry Truman who took office after the death of FDR and had not been very popular as shown in the polls.
Governor Dewey was a charismatic campaigner who had the ability to excite an audience, (again sound familiar ?), and had led in the polls from the beginning of the campaign. Truman had ruffled a lot of feathers in addition to following in the shadow of a very popular President in FDR. He was also not a strong campaigner. In fact his campaign, though consistent, never really had much energy unlike that of Thomas Dewey, (hmmm another familiarity).
As election day approached no one including leaders in the Democrat party and members of Truman's own staff gave the President much chance of winning the election. The press throughout the day and in the days before had already declared Dewey the winner even before the actual vote count started much less had begun.
As night approached the numbers especially from the Western States showed that Dewey was winning rather handily so Harry Truman retired early fully expecting to be defeated by morning. In fact when Truman awoke his first question was, "how bad did we lose ?"
Headlines in the Chicago Tribune as well as several other papers around the Nation declared Dewey the winner as well as giving Republicans the House and Senate. The popular candidate, after all, always wins especially when the press jumps on that candidates band wagon, ( all sarcasm intended). Not only did the press jump the gun on the Presidential election but they also missed the call on the Congressional elections.
When it was all over and the actual vote count was completed Truman won a strong victory with 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 189 and Truman's party gained control of both the House and the Senate. Not only did the press get it wrong but their 1948 darling lost rather handily.
While the parties are different the reaction by the press and in some cases the polls this election year are similar to those of the 1948 election. Barack Obama is the media darling who has run a charismatic campaign that excites crowds and causes the press to drool and have tingling fits as they , "objectively," cover the campaign.
John McCain on the other hand receives little press coverage and even when that coverage appears it is almost as an after thought. His poll numbers though stronger in the last few days have been lagging behind Obama. Of course the media frenzy over Obama have made much more of Obama's numbers that those numbers actually show.
The press has already anointed the Obamamessiah as President of The United States and the election is only a formality that must be met before they can orgasmiclly cover their messiah's inauguration. Actually for them it would be more a coronation for their political king and god.
McCain like Truman has run a consistent and un-energetic campaign that has had its moments but frankly has been rather lackluster. Also like 1948 all of the pundits are conceding the Congressional elections to the Democrats, ( as compared to Republicans in 48), even claiming that there will be enough gains to give both the House and the Senate super majorities.
But just as in 1948 a little thing always forgotten by the press is even now showing its face in this election and it is actually puzzling many in the DNC. The press always forget the people and that WE not THEY choose a President. Their messiah is not pulling away as they thought he would and even with massive press coverage the consistent McCain is neck and neck and even leading in some polls.
In fact I heard a very interesting statistic last week that historically does not look good for Obama. Every Presidential candidate in modern times who has been in the lead during the month of July has LOST the election in November. Obama held the lead throughout the month.
As far as the Congressional races are concerned the Democrats are daily shooting themselves in the foot especially over the energy situation and on this one issue alone they are so polar opposite of the will of the American people that the pundits may very well have a huge surprise come November. Additionally as was shown by their refusal to leave after the House adjourned last Friday, Republicans are finally getting some chutzpah or some might even refer to it as finally,"growing a pair !"
The press has already printed in their minds and their conscience the headline for November 5, 2008, " OBAMA DEFEATS MCCAIN." But like the similar 1948 headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN, " a press love affair with a candidate does not mean that the people have the same love or support for that candidate. Indications are showing that on the morning after the 2008 election just as in 1948 the press and the pundits may be eating a very heavy portion of crow as they announce and talk about President - Elect John McCain and a different, maybe not GOP majority, but different make up in both the House and possibly even the Senate to the detriment of Democrats.
Ken Taylor
Election day in 1948 fell on November second placing President Harry Truman against New York Governor Thomas Dewey. The 1948 campaign had been a hard fought campaign between Dewey a well known liberal, (yes liberal), Republican who had the eyes and ears of the media, ( sound familiar ?), and incumbent President Harry Truman who took office after the death of FDR and had not been very popular as shown in the polls.
Governor Dewey was a charismatic campaigner who had the ability to excite an audience, (again sound familiar ?), and had led in the polls from the beginning of the campaign. Truman had ruffled a lot of feathers in addition to following in the shadow of a very popular President in FDR. He was also not a strong campaigner. In fact his campaign, though consistent, never really had much energy unlike that of Thomas Dewey, (hmmm another familiarity).
As election day approached no one including leaders in the Democrat party and members of Truman's own staff gave the President much chance of winning the election. The press throughout the day and in the days before had already declared Dewey the winner even before the actual vote count started much less had begun.
As night approached the numbers especially from the Western States showed that Dewey was winning rather handily so Harry Truman retired early fully expecting to be defeated by morning. In fact when Truman awoke his first question was, "how bad did we lose ?"
Headlines in the Chicago Tribune as well as several other papers around the Nation declared Dewey the winner as well as giving Republicans the House and Senate. The popular candidate, after all, always wins especially when the press jumps on that candidates band wagon, ( all sarcasm intended). Not only did the press jump the gun on the Presidential election but they also missed the call on the Congressional elections.
When it was all over and the actual vote count was completed Truman won a strong victory with 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 189 and Truman's party gained control of both the House and the Senate. Not only did the press get it wrong but their 1948 darling lost rather handily.
While the parties are different the reaction by the press and in some cases the polls this election year are similar to those of the 1948 election. Barack Obama is the media darling who has run a charismatic campaign that excites crowds and causes the press to drool and have tingling fits as they , "objectively," cover the campaign.
John McCain on the other hand receives little press coverage and even when that coverage appears it is almost as an after thought. His poll numbers though stronger in the last few days have been lagging behind Obama. Of course the media frenzy over Obama have made much more of Obama's numbers that those numbers actually show.
The press has already anointed the Obamamessiah as President of The United States and the election is only a formality that must be met before they can orgasmiclly cover their messiah's inauguration. Actually for them it would be more a coronation for their political king and god.
McCain like Truman has run a consistent and un-energetic campaign that has had its moments but frankly has been rather lackluster. Also like 1948 all of the pundits are conceding the Congressional elections to the Democrats, ( as compared to Republicans in 48), even claiming that there will be enough gains to give both the House and the Senate super majorities.
But just as in 1948 a little thing always forgotten by the press is even now showing its face in this election and it is actually puzzling many in the DNC. The press always forget the people and that WE not THEY choose a President. Their messiah is not pulling away as they thought he would and even with massive press coverage the consistent McCain is neck and neck and even leading in some polls.
In fact I heard a very interesting statistic last week that historically does not look good for Obama. Every Presidential candidate in modern times who has been in the lead during the month of July has LOST the election in November. Obama held the lead throughout the month.
As far as the Congressional races are concerned the Democrats are daily shooting themselves in the foot especially over the energy situation and on this one issue alone they are so polar opposite of the will of the American people that the pundits may very well have a huge surprise come November. Additionally as was shown by their refusal to leave after the House adjourned last Friday, Republicans are finally getting some chutzpah or some might even refer to it as finally,"growing a pair !"
The press has already printed in their minds and their conscience the headline for November 5, 2008, " OBAMA DEFEATS MCCAIN." But like the similar 1948 headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN, " a press love affair with a candidate does not mean that the people have the same love or support for that candidate. Indications are showing that on the morning after the 2008 election just as in 1948 the press and the pundits may be eating a very heavy portion of crow as they announce and talk about President - Elect John McCain and a different, maybe not GOP majority, but different make up in both the House and possibly even the Senate to the detriment of Democrats.
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 9:30 AM
6 Comments:
Interesting post.
But one thing to recognize was that in 1948 the Trib relied on polling data that was done by phone.
Dewey was the Republican candidate and received more of his support from wealthier households (which were more likely to have phones). Democratic households delivered the victory to Truman - but most of them were not polled because they did not have a phone.
There is a similar parallel this year. The polling data comes primarily from land-line phones. However, many voters - particularly younger voters - don't have land-line phones. They go with cell phones.
As such, the polling is likely to be under-representing the younger voters who tend to go for Obama.
We'll see.
Moreover, when McCain is given some coverage its often involves some overly zealous scrutiny of his ways and wares. So the misinformation in the press continues unabated even though Obama’s words often bear little association with facts, Lets hope this adulatory worship is pushed aside for some genuine scrutiny of his past and policy positions in the lead up to November. I am not holding my breath though … Excellent posting!
~Otto
Rob, though polling may follow the manner in which you mentioned, polls also show Mccain ahead by six with likely voters and by seven with women over forty.
The latter is usually a very staunch Dem voting block.
I beleive that Obama is the 2008 version of Dewey as far as the result and the way he like Dewey has all but been chosen by the press.
Otto - I will say this thoug McCain gets little coverage he does make the best of what he gets. with the obvious bias and fee press that Obama gets he should be up by twenty. Even the DNC is flabbergasted by his low numbers.
Ken, it depends on the poll that you are looking at. The poll of polls over at RCP has Obama up.
The Electoral College map is currently much better for Obama.
www.realclearpolitics.com
In the end it will be ideas that will carry the day. If you like the way things are going, McCain is your guy. If not, then Obama is the clear choice. We'll see.
I'm not paying much attention to the polls, Ken, because they have been proven wrong more times than they've been proven right. I am hoping though that your slant on things proves to be right, because anything else is almost unbearable! Obama? Good grief! Why don't we just go get Chavez and ask him to lead this country? May as well. He couldn't be any worse!
And of course therer are indications taht those younger voters, who are notoriously unreliable voters, are losing interest with Obama.
He's like the fad that is already yesterday's news.
Meanwhile, older white women are STILL pissed at Obama and THEY VOTE!
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