The Liberal Lie, The Conservative Truth

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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

MCCAIN CLINCHES, HILLARY REVIVES AND OBAMA STILL HAS LITTLE TO SAY

The second Super Tuesday of this Primary season is now history and the big winners are John McCain and Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama won Vermont but for the Dems this day belonged to Hillary.

With the GOP nominee a definite now McCain can put aside Primary politics and concentrate totally on beating the Democrat whomever that may be. His campaign will now take on a new phase as McCain will be able to center on the issues that separate the Republicans from the Democrats. The War, taxes, increased Government programs proposed by the Dems and The Supreme Court are among the top issues.

For the Democrats, Hillary's wins have created a much more competitive situation with Hillary having a rather strong advantage over Obama. While Obama has a slight delegate lead 1451 to Hillary's 1365, she has a stronger position going into the Convention now that it has become obvious that the nominee will be decided by the Super Delegates.

With the States remaining neither candidate can garner enough delegates to gain the nomination out right without the Super Delegates. Also their is a strong movement to repeat the Florida Primary because none of the Florida delegates will be seated at the Convention and the State party is protesting the move by the DNC that disqualified them because of moving their Primary date up.

So with Florida possibly coming back into the picture, a state that Hillary has already won and in which she would have a strong lead in a repeat Primary and the fact that her standing with Super Delegates has improved tremendously because of her wins in especially Texas and Ohio, deciding the nominee is an absolute advantage to Hillary.

While Obama has the current lead in delegates, Hillary is going to the Convention with the big States in her pocket. She has, California, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, Michigan and Texas in her win column. Obama though winning more States and delegates has not won any of the larger States.

The Super Delegates will be looking at which candidate has a better chance of winning against the GOP and that candidate will have to have the ability to bring the larger States into the Democrat fold in a General Election. Obama has not shown this while Hillary has. This combined with the fact that in the back room deals that will be taking place the Super Delegates owe more to Hillary than they do to Obama and I am also sure that Bill will be around to do a considerable amount of arm twisting.

If she had a poor showing in Texas and Ohio she would have been a dead horse candidate who would most likely have held on until the Convention under great pressure to drop out. But her strong showing in these two States combined with the large States she already has give her a definite Convention advantage.

She realizes this as was proven in an appearance on the Today Show this morning. Hillary suggested that she and Obama should share the Democrat ticket with her at the top of the ticket because, "the people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me."

This may very well be the likely scenario when all is said and done after the Convention. While Hillary is suggesting that it should happen now, I do not believe that Obama will concede the nomination to her yet and plans to hold out for the Convention. His strong showing in the Primaries all but forces Hillary to choose him as her VEEP if she receives the nomination.

Obama on the other hand will not necessarily have to choose Hillary and I do not believe that the VEEP spot on the ticket is one that she will accept even if offered. She wants the top or nothing and at the moment she has the advantage for the top of the ticket.

With the infighting that will be taking place over the next few months before and during the Democrat Convention to decide their nominee, I believe that the GOP has an advantage as both parties come out of their respective Conventions into the final push for November.

The Dems will have an all out war to choose their nominee while the GOP has already been chosen. The GOP Convention will be a cheer leading affair with the only mystery to come out of the Convention being who McCain will choose as a running mate. The GOP will go into the final push looking calm and organized while the Dems will begin their final push following a Convention at war and a considerable amount of back deal brokering with Super Delegates which will leave a bad taste in the mouths of those delegates chosen by the voters.

As always there is still a considerable amount of water to go under the bridge before the Democrat Convention at the end of August and the Republican Convention Labor Day Weekend. But this much is certain, the GOP can now concentrate fully on defeating the Democrats in November while the Dems have several more months to fight amongst themselves for the nomination.

The GOP will be able to define their message against the Dems and directly talk to the voters during the same months that the Dems are still concentrating on the differences between their two candidates. Advantage GOP for November!

Ken Taylor

16 Comments:

Anonymous Mike Belgrove said...

I woke up this morning to see a fellow Highbrid Nation writer reporting that Hillary has won the Ohio and Texas primaries and how this is getting bad. And like him I feel like this battle between Obama and Hillary has went on too long and now they are in danger of hurting the party by allowing McCain to take shots at them while they are dealing with each other. Howard Dean should step in and say “Look, Obama is going to be the canidate and Hillary you can be his running mate if you choose”…I know I know that would never happen but a guy can dream right?

11:19 AM, March 05, 2008  
Blogger Gayle said...

I disagree with Mike Belgrove. I think this is a good thing because like you said, Ken, the Democrats are going to have to fight one another and McCain can concentrate on getting ready for the General election. There is now no way Howard Dean or anyone else will be able to tell Hillary that she can't continue on. She has momentum now, which is all she needs. Even though I don't like Hillary, she's not as bad as Obama. Anyone who comes here who doesn't believe that, needs to watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs&eurl=http://www.myrepublicanblog.blogspot.com/

11:29 AM, March 05, 2008  
Blogger Rob said...

As a Dem who supports Obama, I have no problem with what happened last night.

If Ohio and Texas had voted two weeks ago, Obama would have lost by more than 20 points. He closed the gap considerably (he will probably end up netting out more delegates than Hillary out of Texas). Hillary did not net enough delegates to overtake Obama and Wyoming and Mississippi are probably going to go strongly to Obama in the next week.

I don't see any major damage coming from a spirited race. Most of the country won't pay attention to the general election candidates until October anyway. The close race gives them more exposure to a broader audience for a longer period of time.

I say let the race continue on, have Michigan and Florida reschedule primaries in May/June and in the end Obama will win out. He will be tested and ready to move forward.

If Hillary somehow wins out, then so be it. She will have been tested. Whoever ends up the nominee will end up with huge numbers of new, energized, and enthusiastic voters who are unlikely to shift over to Republicans, and money won't be an issue for Dems.

12:36 PM, March 05, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Great Post Ken,

The Democrat Party is in absolute chaos!

Obama and Hillary are going to throw so much mud at each other there wont be much left for McCain to do.

McCain has it on easy street lol, for a few months anyway.

This is going to be very interesting.

GO McCAIN!!!!!!!

3:04 PM, March 05, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Mike Belgrove,

It does'nt really matter at this point if Obama or Hillary wins, McCain will beat either of them with Experience!!!

But it will be fun to watch the Democrat Political Fued :-}

3:09 PM, March 05, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is better to have a horse race with two good candidates than a one side one with 6 mediocre ones ;-).

I can't wait to see the campaign posters with the top four Democrats that says here is the country we represent versus the top 4 (say 5 or 6 if you want)Republican candidates.

Let's see Dems; 1 white male, 1 black male, 1 hispanic male, 1 white female.

Oh, and the Republicans; white male, white male, white male, etc, etc, etc.

11:54 PM, March 05, 2008  
Blogger Rebekah said...

So who are possible running mates for McCain? The Media has pretty much stated that Huckabee wont be on the ticket, but I dont believe everything the media says.
Any ideas?

9:32 AM, March 06, 2008  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Rebekah, Mark Sanford Gov SC has been tossed around. Good Conservative. Fred Thompson also has been mantioned.

Michael Steele and the one other Conservative Gov whose name slips my mind now.

10:20 AM, March 06, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Anonymous,

It is better to have a horse race with two good candidates than a one side one with 6 mediocre ones ;-).

I can't wait to see the campaign posters with the top four Democrats that says here is the country we represent versus the top 4 (say 5 or 6 if you want)Republican candidates.

Let's see Dems; 1 white male, 1 black male, 1 hispanic male, 1 white female.

Oh, and the Republicans; white male, white male, white male, etc, etc, etc.



Funny you should mention the White issue, that may be who is running but that's not at all the entire Republican party.

We have a huge tent.

For instance President Bush Appointments:

Condi Rice- Black

Colin Powell- Black

Alberto Gonzales- Hispanic

etc, etc..


Oh and let's not forget the man that made this all happen for minorites, that Republican guy, what was his name?

Oh Yeah, Abraham Lincoln!

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