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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Saturday, February 09, 2008

TIGHT DEMOCRAT RACE COULD BE GOP OPPORTUNITY - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY

Although it is not set in stone, the GOP race for the nomination is all but certain. With only a few Primaries remaining John McCain has a strong enough lead to take him into the Convention with enough delegates to recieve the nod on the first ballot or at the most the second.


The Democrats on the other hand are not as sure. While Hillary is keeping a slim lead over Barack Obama, even with the remaining Primaries left for the Democrats, whoever enters the Convention with a delegate lead could find themselves the loser of the nomination.


The reason for the possibility of either Hillary or Obama winning the most delegates in the Primaries and losing the nomination is because of a little understood ruling that Democrats adopted after the 1980 election called the , "Superdelegate."


After the 1968 Convention Democrats fearfull of party leaders taking control of the nomination process and not allowing voters to choose the nominee the McGovern/Fraiser Commission took the power of the nomination process away from the party and made it dependent totally on voting during Primaries and Caucuses.


This left party leaders with a diminished role and as such in 1980 the Superdelegates were instituted to allow the party to have a say so in the nomination as well as the voters. It was also a Democrat strategy to try and overcome the humiliating loss by Carter to Reagan in the 1980 election.

Superdelegates are elected officials such as Governors, Congressman and Senators and other party leaders who are not bound by the voter count of their respective States but are free to choose which candidate they cast their vote for during the nomination process at the Convention.


In the past this has not posed a problem for the Dems because the delegate totals following the Primaries have been high enough for their chosen candidate that when the Convention came and the ballots were cast, the Superdelegates just added to the winning totals of the nominee.


2008 is developing into another story for Democrats. As the Primaries are winding down Hillary and Obama are neck and neck in the delegate count and will remain so even after the Primaries are over. Which candidate enters the Convention with the lead will depend on the results of the remaining Primaries but it will be a slim lead at best.


In an effort to punish Michigan and Florida the DNC took away the delegates from each State and though the vote was held it meant nothing since the more than 300 delegates will not count at the Convention. This move and the closeness of the race has left the Dems with a dilema that could be an advantage for the GOP.


When the nomination goes to the Convention, their will be 795 Superdelegates who will choose which of the two candidates they will cast their vote for at the Convention. With the Primary delegate count so close the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. Since each of these are party and elected officials who find either a loyalty to one of the candidates because of favors granted or promised there will be a considerable amount of , "back room, " negotiating by each candidate before the ballot is cast.


This, "back room, " negotiating not only has the look of impropriaty but in actuality would reak of it. Deals will be made, promises given and exchanged all to gain the nomination and even bypass the will of Democrat voters as the number of Superdelegates will choose the nominee and could actually allow the candidate in second going into the Convention the nomination.


Most pundits beleive that this will favor Hillary because of her many, "friends," in high places and the favors she has given to many of these Superdelegates in the past. Favors that she will quickly collect to get the nomination. A Clinton involved in secretive activity......never, ( all sarcasm intended) !


While none of this activity is illegal because of the , "back room, " nature, it will not sit well with voters as they find that their voice may or may not have counted during the Primary process and this is why it could become an advantage for the GOP.


When Republicans start the Convention John McCain will be the clear leader. Though there will be much taking place during the Convention, creating the platform, casting the ballots for the nominee, choosing the running mate etc., the Convention as a whole will be normal without delegates, candidates and party leaders being at odds with one another.


The Democrat Convention if it comes to the Superdelegate situation which is most likely will not be as calm. There will be a considerable amount of infighting as candidates make deals with the Superdelegates and Primary delegates begin to see their position at the Convention dwindle in favor of those who vote as they wish, (actually through back room deals), instead of how the voters chose.


This will in itself cast a shadow on Democrats as they leave the Convention which could effect the campaign going into the final weeks before November. Republicans on the other hand can come out of their Convention with a unified platform and ticket which would show a much better choice for voters still undecided.


McCain, of course will have to carefully choose his running mate to balance the ticket and satisfy especially the Conservative base in order for this unity to come out of the Convention, but that is very possible when one considers the turmoil that is likely to happen at the Democrat Convention which takes place before the Republican.


This combined with the fact that the GOP has a clear leader while the Dems do not will also help to make the transistion into the final weeks before November smoother for Republicans than Democrats.


Republicans can take great advantage of the Democrats through the Convention process because of this problem that they have created for themselves. Leaving the GOP Convention with a balanced ticket and a calm and smooth transistion into the final weeks as opposed to the very real possiblity of turmoil during the Democrat Covention, will give voters something to think about that is a strong negative for Democrats and an equally as strong positive for the GOP as they choose who will be the next President Of The United States.



Ken Taylor

11 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

Your overstating the unity on the Republican side and the discord on the Dem side.

First the Dems - their will be a clear nominee before the convention. It looks like Obama will rise up and unite the party. On top of that, the Dems are drawing twice as many voters as Republicans - even in Red States.

For the Republicans - look at what happened yesterday in Kansas and Louisiana. McCain was trounced by Huckabee in Kansas and edged in Louisiana. However, even in Washington state he only won by 2 percent (he only beat Ron Paul by 5 percent). Hardly a strong Republican candidate.

1:29 PM, February 10, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The base does not like or trust either one Macamnesty or the huckster. They are sitting this one out. that is why the low turn out.

2:41 PM, February 10, 2008  
Blogger BB-Idaho said...

Sounds like you agree with ol Will Rogers "I am not a member of an organized political party- I'm a Democrat". Looks like the same could be said for the GOP, which,
IMHO has become a rather unwieldy amalgam of conflicting interests.
Along those lines, McCain's two problems are 1. his age, which places more emphasis on VP selection..and 2. his VP selection will offend cons if he picks a moderate, or vice versa.

1:03 PM, February 11, 2008  
Blogger Mike's America said...

Mike agreeing with Rob? Has the WORLD GONE MAD?

3:33 PM, February 11, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

I am losing track of what the hell to think.

4:25 PM, February 11, 2008  
Blogger Gayle said...

I'm in the same boat as Marie. This election has turned into a circus and it's only February. Obama is worshipped by people as if he were a god and he says absolutely nothing - they just like the way he says it!

If we all keep our sanity by the time the general election rolls around it will be a miricle.

10:46 AM, February 12, 2008  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

Mike agreeing with Rob? Has the WORLD GONE MAD?

Yes.

2:38 PM, February 12, 2008  
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