The Liberal Lie, The Conservative Truth

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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

MCCAIN AND CLINTON LEAD AFTER SUPER TUESDAY

The first National Primary Day is history and in the GOP there is a clear leader while the Democrats though having a leader are still fighting for the right of nomination. John McCain came out on top in the Super Tuesday voting and Hillary garnered a slight lead over Obama for the Democrats.

One of the biggest surprises was the strong showing of Mike Huckabee and the weak showing by Mitt Romney. Huckabee now has a very interesting position within the Republican Party and at the Convention which will be held Labor Day weekend.

His strong showing on Super Tuesday combined with his win in Iowa allows him negotiating power for the number two slot behind McCain who though not set in stone yet is on his way to the GOP nomination.

The question that arrises is whether Huckabee would help or hurt the ticket. Of course many believe that Huckabee would strengthen the ticket because of his moral Conservatism. But on the other hand the moral issues that he is so strong in do not differ much from those of John McCain. McCain and Huckabee are pro-life, pro-second Amendment but with differing views on Gay Marriage. McCain wants it left to the States while Huckabee favors a Constitutional Amendment.

Both are weak on Immigration though latley have come out strong concerning the border fence and border security. Yet each have a record that favors Amnesty and Illegal Aliens recieving social benefits.

Both talk a tax cut game now but Huckabee's Arkansas record show a net increase in taxes while he was Governor while McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts wanting spending cuts to accompany the cuts. He now claims to favor making the tax cuts permanent and adding additional cuts if elected.

On the war McCain has been a strong supporter of victory though critical of Donald Rumsfeld while he was Secretary of Defense. Huckabee has come out against Bush several times then when cornered on the subject backed away as if he did not mean to say what he said and that it was taken wrong by the press.

Huckabee has run on the Fair Tax platform, which eliminates the IRS and replaces all payroll taxes with a consumption tax. There are rumors that McCain is considering adding the Fair Tax to his platform which also tends to lean toward taking Mike Huckabee as his running mate.

Another indication that McCain and Huckabee have talked are the result from West Virginia. Huckabee won the State with a large percentage and sources discovered that McCain campaign workers called McCain supporters urging them to vote for Huckabee since McCain was well down in the polls. Whether this was the beginning of a VP deal or just a combined effort to defeat Romney is not yet known. But it does add an interesting twist to the possibility of a McCain/Huckabee ticket.

Huckabee is considered by the pundits as a Conservative candidate yet his more liberal tax and spend record in Arkansas speaks otherwise. This could hurt the GOP ticket when the Democrats step into the ring after the Conventions and begin finding ways to attack the GOP ticket.

Polls still show McCain leading Hillary in a one on one match and tied with Obama in the same matchup. The Democrats still have a fight on their hands as Hillary though leading has not garnered enough delegates to claim the title of nominee. She is the front runner but only by a slim margin. The States that remain on the Democrat side are not large delegate States but do have enough to allow Obama to take the lead if he does well in most of them and especially if he beats Hillary in those same States.

At this point in the 2008 election stand off it looks like both parties will go into the Convention without a clear nominee. McCain will have a stronger position at the Convention than Hillary will in August for the Democrats.

Conservatives also can find considerable hope concerning the GOP party platform. Though McCain is the leader he does not have a strong enough lead to dictate the platform. Which leaves a wide open opportunity for Conservatives to shape the platform right of McCain.

Though providing some answers to the questions of who is the front runner, Super Tuesday in many ways provided as many or more questions then it did answers. Now we will wait for the Conventions to get the final analysis and see who will come out of the gates for the final push for November. My early prediction is McCain for the GOP and Hillary for the Democrats.

Vice President is still very questionable but at this point in the game if he wants it Hillary will be more or less forced to take on Obama as VP while Huckabee has a verys strong position for the GOP. Giuliani may also have a shot at the VP slot since he endorsed McCain which helped to ice the wins in California, New York and New Jersey.

Ken Taylor

14 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

Ken, it seems clear that McCain is going to go to the Republican convention as the nominee. Unless Huckabee or Romney sweep the remaining states it is over on the Republican side.

For the Dems, it is essentially tied. Obama has 838 delegates and Clinton as 834. Clinton has about 90 more super delegates right now, but the super delegates can change their mind and I am certain they will if Obama wins out in the primaries. I'm not really sure what is going to happen, but it seems to me like Obama has a growing level of momentum that may carry him to victory in the next couple of states and put him ahead.

2:55 PM, February 06, 2008  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Rob, While that may be true, never underestimate the force of the, "Clinton Machine." She also thinks she won big yesterday and as such she will let the dogs loose in the next primaries.

Also the Superdelegates have do remain somewhat committed to the candidate they initially chose.

If they leave Hillary it won't be until it is obvious at the Convention that she has no chance of winning.

I don't think the McCain momentum can be stopped now. He is on his way to the nomination.

3:08 PM, February 06, 2008  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Ken,

I give up!

I am to the point I dont give a damn who wins the Republican Nomination, let's just get it over with and find a way to deal with it.

Because any way we turn we are Hucked!

I am just going to let the party take me where it takes me.

But it will NOT be a Vote for a Liberal or Ron Friggen Paul.

3:49 PM, February 06, 2008  
Blogger Gayle said...

Yes, unfortunately it looks like it's McCain, and I hope it will be Hillary because I think she'll be easier to beat. She has a lot of skeletons in her closet and one of them is named Bill!

I feel that I will be so completely burned out by September that I may not care what happens. I hope that won't come to pass, but good grief! This has already gone on forever. At least it seems like it has!

3:51 PM, February 06, 2008  
Blogger Gayle said...

LOL! Marie came in while I was writing my comment. She was on the same chat room thing that I was during the nomination. We coined the phrase "Get Hucked" over there. It sounds better than that other word. :)

3:52 PM, February 06, 2008  
Blogger Rob said...

On the Dem side, I think Hillary is still the favorite because of the super delegates. They are folks who are in the party establishment.

I just hope it is not her.

4:19 PM, February 06, 2008  
Anonymous Seth said...

It looks glaringly obvious like a Klinton vs McCain general election.

Either way it ends, "thar go conservatism and the Constitution, and hello, Mr. Marx!"

11:05 PM, February 06, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well
Romany is now out of the race.
so we are stuck with Juan McCain.
I am going to vote in the congressional races and the governors race. but I am leaving the president blank. I refuse to reward this RINO. If it walks like a democrat, talks like a democrat, acts like a democrat. it must be one.
It is also sad the Cpac goers are being told not to Boo this guy. that speaks more then words can tell.

3:42 PM, February 07, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From the NY Times comments about Romney dropping out:

"I find it somewhat interesting that the two most conservative Republican candidates, Thompson and Romney, did so poorly in this process. There is so much speculation on whether or not “true conservatives” will embrace McCain or not. Perhaps a more appropriate question conservatives should be asking is whether or not their message is resonating with the American people. I know it does not with this former Republican. I became a Democrat a couple of months ago and am actively supporting Barack Obama!"

4:20 PM, February 07, 2008  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

anonymous wrote:
I am going to vote in the congressional races and the governors race. but I am leaving the president blank. I refuse to reward this RINO.

You're rewarding Hillary or Obama.

You're not punishing McCain.

Do you vote like this, when it comes to Congressmen?


If it walks like a democrat, talks like a democrat, acts like a democrat. it must be one.

McCain may piss off conservatives; but he is not a Democrat! Please....conservatives are becoming just as unhinged as DU and the KosKiddies.

It is also sad the Cpac goers are being told not to Boo this guy. that speaks more then words can tell.

Yeah. It means there are still some conservatives out there who understand class and respect.

Can you imagine having Democrats at the SotU openly booing a Republican president, and vice versa? During a presidential inauguration? All booing would accomplish, is to embarrass the conservative movement and Republicans as the party of boorish behavior.

1:51 AM, February 08, 2008  
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