THE NEW HAMPSHIRE IMPACT

The New Hampshire Primary is now history and some very interesting twists took place that have not only baffled the pundits but the pollsters as well. Going into the Primary on the GOP side John McCain was in the lead and that lead and the numbers held true through the voting as McCain won the Primary.

The Democrats on the other hand baffled all of the experts. After a third place finish in Iowa many had all but written Hillary off. Then Monday came and Clinton turned , "Crocodile Tears, " into votes. Her emotional speech on Monday when she teared up turned the Independents and the women vote out in massive numbers with the majority casting their ballot for Hillary giving her a two point victory over Barack Obama who had been crowned the New Hampshire winner by the pollsters and the experts because of his , "upset, " in Iowa. Remember though in those winning numbers, Hillary had a double digit lead in New Hampshire less than a month ago. Two points in NOT a resounding victory in light of the commanding lead she lost over the last few weeks.

Following the Clinton victory Bill took a page from Hillary's campaign book and during a speech for his wife shed a few tears. So is this the Clinton campaign strategy now, to shed tears as a means of showing the, "human, " side of Hillary in order to get the sympathy vote ? I no more believe that her tears were genuine than I believe in the Easter Bunny, but it worked in New Hampshire and this savvy politician will use what works to get votes regardless of how campy or fake it may be.

Those who naively counted Hillary out after the third place Iowa finish are now back tracking and trying to figure out what happened. I'll tell you what happened. The Clinton machine kicked in and found new angles to fool the voters and it worked. She can never be counted out and I still stand by my previous predictions that regardless of the Obama surge recently Hillary will be the Democrat nominee.

On the GOP side McCain winning in New Hampshire is no real surprise because he has a history of winning in this first Primary State. In 2000 McCain defeated George Bush in New Hampshire only to fall to a devastating defeat in South Carolina in which he was never able to recover and eventually bowed out shortly after the South Carolina Primary.

The real looser in New Hampshire was Mitt Romney because the Northeast is considered his home turf which should have given him a distinct advantage which did not appear in the real voting results. His second place showing was not very strong considering the fact that he was Governor of the neighboring State of Massachusetts and well known in the region. Michigan will be another significant test for Romney since he was raised in that State and his father was Governor. The polls currently have McCain in the lead there also.

Many are trying to take the results of both Iowa and New Hampshire and spin them into a trend or the crowning of a nominee especially on the Democrat side of the political coin. The primaries are just beginning and the delegate counts are still very low for any of the candidates even those who have won Primaries. In either Party there is still no clear leader. Yet the experts are trying to invent one and show some sort of momentum for several candidates, like Huckabee, Romney , McCain, Hillary and Obama.

For any Republican to gain the nomination 1191 delegates are needed. As of today January 9, 2008 the GOP delegate count is as follows :

Mitt Romney - 30
Mike Huckabee - 21
John McCain - 10
Fred Thompson - 6
Ron Paul - 2
Duncan Hunter - 1
Rudy Giuliani - 1

The Democrats need 2050 delegates to win the nomination and again as of today January 9, 2008 the count is as follows :

Hillary Clinton - 183
Barack Obama - 78
John Edwards - 52
Bill Richardson - 19
Dennis Kucinich - 1

The numbers after New Hampshire do not equate to a clear leader nor do they count most candidates out. Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson are pretty much finished for the Democrats and on the GOP side of the coin Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter are just waiting for the fat lady to sing and for Paul actually accepting that he is done. While Giuliani only has one delegate he has not campaigned much in either Iowa or New Hampshire and is banking on Florida and Super Tuesday to pick up a large number of delegates in States where he leads in the polls.

We are still very early in the Primary Season and quite a lot can change over the next few weeks. My gut feeling though is that after Super Tuesday the Democrats will be narrowed down to two, ( Clinton and Obama), with the possibility that a clear nominee will be known for the Dems at the end of the day.

For the GOP after Super Tuesday, I still believe that the race will consist of three and maybe four candidates depending on how well Fred Thompson does as the Primaries turn to the South.
If he is able to hang on through Super Tuesday the race should be between, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee and Thompson. I do not believe that McCain will be around after all the votes are in on February fifth. If Fred does not do well in South Carolina, at least a strong second and preferably first he will be dropping out either just before or right after Super Tuesday.

This then will take the choice of the nominee to the Republican Convention in September which will be very advantageous to the GOP as voters will pay close attention to the Convention results only two months before the General Election in November. A very interesting few weeks are ahead in the race for 2008!

Ken Taylor