MICHIGAN AND THE GOP NOMINATION.
We have had yet another Primary and once again we have had yet another winner. To date there have been two Primaries and two Caucuses. The tally is Romney two, ( Michigan and Wyoming), McCain one, ( New Hampshire), and Huckabee one , (Iowa).
South Carolina is the next prize under the GOP nomination Christmas Tree and it to is still up for grabs as the polls have been changing daily. Thompson has mounted a serious challenge here with excellent response to his bus tour. Fire Marshals have actually had to leave people in the parking lot of almost every campaign stop because of the crowds. Fred has graciously met with those supporters outside after his speech inside. So as with the other Primaries and Caucuses the pollsters may very well have South Carolina wrong.
To date the pollsters have not had a very good season. They missed New Hampshire, were off somewhat in Iowa and even in Michigan as the voting was taking place many had McCain in the lead. So polls are not the come all and end all in politics as they have been portrayed.
Michigan has actually reinforced my contention that the GOP nomination for 2008 will not be decided by the Primary process as it has been since 1980 but will go all the way to the Convention as it did in 1976 when Ronald Reagan mounted a stiff challenge to incumbent President Gerald Ford.
The only serious candidate who may have shot himself in the foot and actually by his own strategy likely taken himself out of the mix is Rudy Giuliani. His move to put all of his eggs in one Florida basket may have hurt him beyond repair. Even in Florida where he at one time had a double digit lead Rudy is running neck and neck with McCain. Nationally he has dropped from a consistent first to distant third and his money is running out.
Some may be asking why I did not mention Ron Paul in this mix thus far and that is because I never have nor do I now consider, "Dr. Paul, " a serious candidate. The GOP have made it rather obvious from the beginning that we do not want him and the only one who cannot accept this besides Paul himself are the Pauliac moonbats who are anti-war Democrats in disguise that are disappointed that none of their left wing Democrat candidates have taken an anti-war stance. So they jump on the bandwagon of the only anti-war candidate.
With the number of States that will be in the mix on Super Tuesday and the lead in those States as diverse as the early Primaries and Caucuses has been, even after February fifth the probability of three or more candidates having a shot at the nomination is very real. To win the GOP nomination 1191 delegates are necessary and if the first four results are any indication after Super Tuesday no one will be close to that number.
As of today, ( January 15), the delegate totals are:
Romney - 42
Huckabee - 22
McCain - 19
Thompson - 6
Paul - 2
Giuliani - 1
Having the nomination going to the Convention could very well be an advantage for the GOP in the final push to November since the Convention in Minneapolis will be Labor Day weekend September 1-4 as opposed to the Democrats who meet August 25 - 28 in Denver.
If the nomination goes to the Convention as it would seem at this point, the eyes of the world and most importantly the voters will be watching the GOP choose a candidate for the Party. With only two months of campaigning left after the Convention this type of high interest may very well help to propel the GOP nominee into the White House.
Of course we are still early in the Primary process and as we have seen quite allot can change and has changed in just the first four. How the voters respond as always is the key and thus far the voters have indicate that they are still searching for the right candidate to lead the GOP to victory in 2008.
Ken Taylor
South Carolina is the next prize under the GOP nomination Christmas Tree and it to is still up for grabs as the polls have been changing daily. Thompson has mounted a serious challenge here with excellent response to his bus tour. Fire Marshals have actually had to leave people in the parking lot of almost every campaign stop because of the crowds. Fred has graciously met with those supporters outside after his speech inside. So as with the other Primaries and Caucuses the pollsters may very well have South Carolina wrong.
To date the pollsters have not had a very good season. They missed New Hampshire, were off somewhat in Iowa and even in Michigan as the voting was taking place many had McCain in the lead. So polls are not the come all and end all in politics as they have been portrayed.
Michigan has actually reinforced my contention that the GOP nomination for 2008 will not be decided by the Primary process as it has been since 1980 but will go all the way to the Convention as it did in 1976 when Ronald Reagan mounted a stiff challenge to incumbent President Gerald Ford.
The only serious candidate who may have shot himself in the foot and actually by his own strategy likely taken himself out of the mix is Rudy Giuliani. His move to put all of his eggs in one Florida basket may have hurt him beyond repair. Even in Florida where he at one time had a double digit lead Rudy is running neck and neck with McCain. Nationally he has dropped from a consistent first to distant third and his money is running out.
Some may be asking why I did not mention Ron Paul in this mix thus far and that is because I never have nor do I now consider, "Dr. Paul, " a serious candidate. The GOP have made it rather obvious from the beginning that we do not want him and the only one who cannot accept this besides Paul himself are the Pauliac moonbats who are anti-war Democrats in disguise that are disappointed that none of their left wing Democrat candidates have taken an anti-war stance. So they jump on the bandwagon of the only anti-war candidate.
With the number of States that will be in the mix on Super Tuesday and the lead in those States as diverse as the early Primaries and Caucuses has been, even after February fifth the probability of three or more candidates having a shot at the nomination is very real. To win the GOP nomination 1191 delegates are necessary and if the first four results are any indication after Super Tuesday no one will be close to that number.
As of today, ( January 15), the delegate totals are:
Romney - 42
Huckabee - 22
McCain - 19
Thompson - 6
Paul - 2
Giuliani - 1
Having the nomination going to the Convention could very well be an advantage for the GOP in the final push to November since the Convention in Minneapolis will be Labor Day weekend September 1-4 as opposed to the Democrats who meet August 25 - 28 in Denver.
If the nomination goes to the Convention as it would seem at this point, the eyes of the world and most importantly the voters will be watching the GOP choose a candidate for the Party. With only two months of campaigning left after the Convention this type of high interest may very well help to propel the GOP nominee into the White House.
Of course we are still early in the Primary process and as we have seen quite allot can change and has changed in just the first four. How the voters respond as always is the key and thus far the voters have indicate that they are still searching for the right candidate to lead the GOP to victory in 2008.
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 10:53 AM
5 Comments:
I cannot believe Ron Paul beat Fred Thompson lastnight.
Something is strange here. There cant be that many Ron Paul supporters in Michigan.
Some are voting twice or they are illegal or convicted felons.
But something is wrong.
There are Ron Paul signs all over the highway.
I haven't seen a Fred sign yet.
Ron Paul's gang of disaffected, young men who are prone to gang behavior reminds me of the Brownshirts in 1930's Munich.
Fred has been running a really good ad on cable news here.
I saw on Fox News that some Demorats were voting for Ron Paul in the hopes of screwing up the Republican nomination. *sigh*
I came over here to award you with "The Thinking Blogger's Award." Stop by for your sloppy Dragon kiss! :)
Not to plug myself but if you would like my reasons for supporting Fred, I did a show about it. After the initial 7 minutes of banter I get in to why Senator Thompson is what we need NOW!
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/cir_radio/2007/12/23/Number-Ten
Sorry for being so absent recently, work has been kicking my butt!
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