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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRIMARY PIVOTAL FOR NOMINATION

January 19, 2008 could be the first real clue concerning the GOP nominee for the 2008 Presidential race. South Carolina is holding the GOP primary on Saturday January 19th and if history is a benchmark for the GOP nomination no Republican has won the GOP nomination since 1980 without winning the South Carolina primary.

The top tier candidates are currently in a virtual dead heat with South Carolina voters. In recent polling Fred Thompson leads Rudy Giuliani by only 2% with Rudy only 2% in front of Mitt Romney and John McCain trailing Romney by about 4%. So with numbers like that the South Carolina primary is a toss up in the top tier.

Additionally Mike Huckabee and Duncan Hunter poll fair in the Palmetto State and a low voter turn out could work to their advantage but most state pundits see their chances in taking the state highly unlikely. Which then leaves South Carolina voters with the four in the top tier.

Living in South Carolina I have seen first hand through local news reports and newspapers of one of the top tier candidates visiting the state almost daily. This added to constant television and radio adds equates to a large push by candidates to win this key state in the primary process.

While South Carolina does not offer the winner a large number of delegates at the convention, (a number that has been cut in half because of the State moving the primary up to the 19th of January from the 29th to counter the move by Florida), South Carolina does give the winner a boost for the remaining primaries because of the massive news coverage that winning this state would provide due to the early standing in the primary season.

One thing that will effect the vote this year is the day that the primary falls on. In moving from the 29th which was a Tuesday the traditional voting day, South Carolina GOP leaders have chosen a Saturday which is usually a day the brings an extremely low voter turn out. Still despite this candidates are flooding the Palmetto state and that flood will increase as we approach January.

January 10th has also become an important day for the primary season and South Carolina as the last GOP debate before the primaries will be held on my home turf of Myrtle Beach by Fox News. This particular GOP debate will also receive a great deal more viewing since it is the last before the primaries begin.

Candidates have been centering their appearances here based on the strong conservative voter base which has equated to campaign stops that have covered the war, illegal immigration and strong fiscal policies that include tax reform, tax cuts and fiscal responsibility. The Fair Tax movement has been following the GOP candidates which has also sparked discussion about The Fair Tax as a viable tax reform with the GOP.

February 5, 2008 may be the Super Tuesday of the primary season but January 29th, may very well give voters the key indicator of the next Republican Presidential nominee for 2008. Over the next several weeks of 2007 and the first two weeks of 2008 those who watch politics regularly would do well to keep a close eye on what is taking place with the GOP in South Carolina.

Ken Taylor

6 Comments:

Blogger Conservative Chic said...

Great post Ken. I think you are exactly right and it is very important to keep an eye on South Carolina. Glad to see Fred doing so well and can only hope that he keeps going up in the polls.

12:31 AM, November 06, 2007  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Got my eyes on it :-)

1:00 PM, November 06, 2007  
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