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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

REPUBLICAN'S SURRENDERING 2008 ?

Well known Chicago Sun - Times political columnist Robert Novak claims in a recent column that GOP leaders are distraught about the Grand Old Parties chances in the 2008 election both Congressional races and the White House. So much so that, according to Novak, GOP leadership has given up on the 2008 election and are concentrating on 2010 banking on Democrat failures, raising of taxes, increased regulation, move toward socialism and implosion which, they believe will turn the electorate back to the GOP.

Now while I agree with Novak's assessment of the results of full Democrat control of Congress and the White House, I totally disagree with the premise that the GOP has already lost 2008. Whether the leadership believes this or not does not change the fact that the Democrats are not the shoe in that the MSM, the DNC and now it seems the GOP believes that they are.

First it is still a long way until the primaries and even further until the general election in November of 2008. Quite a bit can change in the political spectrum in the amount of time that separates now from then. The second aspect that Novak's premise does not consider are the facts found in polling at this point in politics.

While polling in itself can be manipulated, this far in advance of an election the questions are generic in nature and basically a popularity contest to get a feel of the mood of voters toward any given candidate. The polling does not show this massive loss that GOP leaders and Novak refer to.

Recent Rasmussen polls show that in a head to head race between the two front runners for the White House in both parties, Republicans are polling better than Democrats. Rudy Giuliani has a four point lead on Barak Obama and as much a six points on Hillary. Fred Thompson is in a statistical tie with Obama showing at only two points behind and a literal tie with Hillary with some polls showing him one or two points ahead.

Additionally the presumed nominee for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is dropping in most polls and a general poll designed to get the pulse of how people see her shows that 52% of all likely voters cannot stand her. Obama shows stronger in a similar poll but both GOP front runners, Giuliani and Thompson have a very high favorable rating from likely voters, well into the high 50's and low 60's.

Looking at the Congress there is a similar picture forming as we approach 2008. Congress has the lowest approval rating in history and the numbers keep dropping. Both Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have low numbers that match those of the Congress in general. In an election year low approval ratings for Congress directly effects the majority party rather than the minority.

With Democrats in charge and approval ratings at all time lows and dropping, the prospects of Democrats increasing their majority do not look good. In fact some analysts see a possible shift in either the House or Senate leadership.

The problem now falls in the attitude of the GOP leadership and their, again according to Novak, premise that all is lost in 2008. An attitude like this will equate to either a very weak platform or no platform at all. The trouble that has plagued the GOP for the last two years is that other than a strong defense and stance on national security they have offered nothing for voters to get excited about.

The only thing that has worked to their advantage in this is that Democrats have virtually done nothing since taking the majority except fight the President over military appropriations and investigate everything. This is a direct cause to the low approval ratings of Congress and why the GOP is still in the ball park. Democrats seem content with following this same agenda which will not help them in the polls at all.

So what must the GOP do to turn this around ? Get off their duffs and stand for something that voters see as progressive and worthy of electing them to office. The fight over the immigration bill which was lead by conservative GOP Senators was a beginning that helped their standing with voters.

From a Congressional stand point the GOP can also add to this beginning with strong stances on taxes and even more so by placing in the platform the Fair Tax which will work well with voters. Then actually push toward having it implemented. Additionally securing the borders by building the fence and increasing patrolling will also go along way for the GOP. Enforcing existing immigration laws will too. If the GOP will stand with just this they will have a good chance of gaining the Senate and maybe the House.

From the Presidential stand point, both Thompson and Giuliani have a far better chance of winning the White House that either Hillary or Obama. Thompson is much more favorable with conservatives and his name recognition gives him a better than average chance of beating the Democrat nominee. Giuliani also stands a better than average chance of beating the Democrat but whether he can survive the primaries because of his more liberal stances on social issues remains to be seen.

Yogi Berra once said, "it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings." Republicans who are already listening for the , "fat lady, " need to wake up and realize that she hasn't even entered the building much less started warming up her vocal cords.

The only way to insure a Democrat defeat and prevent the socialization of this country under full Democrat control is to fight and show voters that the GOP is the party who believes in limited government, less taxation and regulation, a strong defense, a ever watchful eye on national security while securing the borders and preventing both illegal immigration and terrorist infiltration.

The time to act is now. Though still months away the momentum for 2008 is beginning and the Democrats have not grabbed the reigns to win the election except maybe in the minds of those in the GOP who already admit defeat. It is still anybodies ball game and the outlook for the GOP is good if they will grab the ball and run with it.

Ken Taylor

10 Comments:

Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Simple basic stuff!

That's all our candidate has to do.

Speaking of Fred, he is going to be on Sean Hannity's Radio Show and Hannity says he has a couple of surprises, hmm!

3:37 PM, July 10, 2007  
Blogger Rob said...

It is way too early, but GOP strategists recognize the drag of the Iraq war and will find a way to end it before next year's election.

FYI, Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til its over."

As a long-time Washington Wizards fan, I can tell you that "It ain't over until the fat lady sings" was coined by former Washington Bullets announcer Dan Cook (when the Wizards were called the Bullets).

10:24 PM, July 10, 2007  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Thanks Rob. I remembered this as I read your comment. Oh well.

10:15 AM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger Robert said...

Interesting sports trivia there.

Surrender? We have been doing that since 1994. Can we change it?

10:20 AM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger Mr Minority said...

Yeah, the War in Iraq may be dragging the party down, and yeah the immigration bill didn't help the party either. But with the polling on Congress being in the dumper, this demonstrates that the Donks are doing worse that the Republicans did in leading Congress. The problem is not the conservative base being disgruntled with the party, the problem in the party's leadership is worthless. It is time for a change, fresh blood in those positions. And the best of all is that Fred! will kick some butt, energize the base, and we should see a change again in 2008.

Mr Minority

8:13 PM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger Robert said...

Mr. Minority, I completely agree. The conservative base (which includes me) is ipset with the lack of leadership exhibited by the GOP. Hopefully, Thompson can lead a Reagan-like resurgency of leadership.

2:18 PM, July 12, 2007  
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