PRESIDENT 2008 - WHO CAN WIN ? - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY

2006 is quickly approaching the beginning of 2007. Politically speaking it has been a very interesting year culminating in the Mid Term election and all of the news revolving around the process of forming new leadership under the Democrats and the Lame Duck Congressional session as Republicans ponder their prospects as Minority. Thrown into this political mix are questions concerning the next election in 2008. Elections have become so involved now that when one is over the next campaign begins and that is exactly what has happened and most prominant is the run for the successor to President Bush. Several have already thrown their, "hat in the ring, " to coin a phrase first used by P.T. Barnum when he ran for political office and actually threw his hat into one of the rings of his, "Greatest Show on Earth." On the GOP side former New York Mayor and long speculated candidate Rudy Giuliani formed his exploratory committee as did Arizona Senator John McCain. Other Republicans who have either taken steps to run for President or are considering a bid include former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and California Congressman Duncan Hunter. Democrats have also complied a number of possible candidates. Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa has formed an exploratory committee yet is not considered one of the top contenders. That position belongs to Senator Hillary Clinton who denies a run yet has been campaigning for it for two years. Another top contender is first-term Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Other Democrats who have either taken steps to run or are considering a White House bid include Senators Joseph Biden of Delaware, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh of Indiana, John Kerry of Massachusetts, former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Quite an exhaustive field from both parties with equally exhaustive speculation as to who has the best chance and the most popularity as a Prsidential candidate and then as President. There is a certain amount of historical presidence that may also reveal who has a better chance of winning the Presidency besides ones personal preference or party affiliation. If followed this may also be a clue as to who each party selects to run as nominee for 2008.

First - A sitting Senator is doomed. Of the 43 men who have had the high honor of serving as President of The United States only two sitting Senators have been elected to office. The first was Warren G. Harding and the last was John F. Kennedy. Thirteen Senators including Harding and Kennedy have served as President but with the exception of the two mentioned all served in another capacity before election to the Presidency. Several were Vice President after the Senate and prior to the Presidency. Included in this number are Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, Harry Truman and Andrew Johnson. From a historical stand point unless a Senator leaves the Senate for more electionable pastures the Presidency looks beyond their reach. Yet in the 08 mix eight sitting Senators are considering a run with two more recent former Senators, Republican Bill Frist and Democrat John Edwards one of which, Frist, left the Senate to prepare for the run while Edwards has been in the private sector since his unsuccessful run as Kerry's VP. This by far is the majority of the candidates for 08 and historically this nation does not elect Senators. Why ? Well the best explanation that I have heard and agree with is that bickering from the Senate floor and maneuvering to pass a bill does not make a leader nor qualify one for the highest office in the land and the most powerful position in the world.

Second - Governors are very electable. Seventeen Governors have been elected to the White House and of that number eleven went straight from State Chief Executive to the Presidency. Recent history also favors Governors for of the last five Presidents only Bush 41 was not a Governor and three of those four were Governors as they ran for President. Only Reagan was eight years removed from his Governors chair in California before the Presidency and in that time he was running for President for 1976 and his election year of 1980. Several of the seventeen served as Vice president before the Presidency including Teddy Roosevelt and Martin Van Buren. Four of the current crop of 08 , two Republicans and two Democrats are or have recently been Governors. I include as the fifth in that number Giuliani because as Mayor of New York City he precided over a city government that is larger than many US states and as such offers similar executive experience. If Giuliani is elected he will join Grover Cleveland as the only former Mayor elected to the Presidency. Cleveland served as New York City Mayor also but went from Governor of New York to the Presidency. Executive is the key word concerning the viabilty with the voter for Governors winning the Presidency. The nation historically views the executive experience of a Governor as a strong qualification to step into the Presidency since each has governed at the helm of a state government.

Third - House members fair poorly. Seventeen House members have been elected President but only two, Lincoln and Garfield served in the House just prior to the Presidency with Garfield being the only sitting House member to ever be elected President. One President, John Quincy Adams was elected to the House after his Presidency and John Tyler served in the Confererate House after serving as President of The United States. From a historical stand point this does not bode well for Newt Gingrich whose last elected office was Representative from Georgia and Speaker of the House. Of course his possible candidacy could be a history making presidence as aSpeaker of the House has never been elected President. It would seem historically that the same applies to House members as Senators, maneuvering and bickering on the House does not an executive make.

Fourth - Vice President's do well. Fourteen Vice Presidents have been become President. With the exception of Richard Nixon each served as President immediatly after their Vice Presidency. Four assumed office by Constitutional law after a Presidential assasination of which two were elected in their own right in the next election. Four others assumed the Presidency after their predeccesor died in office again two were later elected in their own right. One, Ford assumed the office after Presidential resignation and was not re-elected. As a whole though the office of Vice President of the United Sates receives a good deal of electability for President. Of the current crop that has shown serious asperations for 2008 none are or have been Vice President. Only speculation by certain pundints places former VP Al Gore in the mix as he has repeadedly denied entrance for 08 but some of his actions have shown otherwise. Until the Truman Presidency the office of Vice President has been one that was more a Constitutional necessity that an active and involved member of the administration. The last fifty years has seen the emergence of a highly involved VP which has made the selection of a running mate a far more important issue than prior to Truman since the VP is now involved in policy and action taken on that policy. Being the number two seems to give the electorate the confidence to allow the office of Vice President as stong contender for President.

To this point none of the field of possible 2008 candidates whether Republican or Democrat has shown the backing of the electorate to make them stand out as the leading contender to follow President Bush. Recent polling has Giuliani leading among those who have made their Presidential asperations known. If history holds true to the election of a President most of the current contenders are not electable. The nation favors candidates who have had executive experience in government and House and Senate members fall short of that qualification in the eyes of the electorate and this represents the majority of the 08 possibles. Of course the final word for Presidential election comes from the voter. With history as a teacher party officials and candidates would do well to back a nominee with executive experience in governing which looks very good for Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee for the GOP and Richardson for the Democrats.

Ken Taylor