The Liberal Lie, The Conservative Truth

Exposing the Liberal Lie through current events and history. “Republicans believe every day is the Fourth of July, but the democrats believe every day is April 15.” ****** "We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared, so we may always be free." RONALD REAGAN

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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Sunday, November 19, 2006

PRESIDENT 2008 - WHO CAN WIN ? - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY

2006 is quickly approaching the beginning of 2007. Politically speaking it has been a very interesting year culminating in the Mid Term election and all of the news revolving around the process of forming new leadership under the Democrats and the Lame Duck Congressional session as Republicans ponder their prospects as Minority. Thrown into this political mix are questions concerning the next election in 2008. Elections have become so involved now that when one is over the next campaign begins and that is exactly what has happened and most prominant is the run for the successor to President Bush. Several have already thrown their, "hat in the ring, " to coin a phrase first used by P.T. Barnum when he ran for political office and actually threw his hat into one of the rings of his, "Greatest Show on Earth." On the GOP side former New York Mayor and long speculated candidate Rudy Giuliani formed his exploratory committee as did Arizona Senator John McCain. Other Republicans who have either taken steps to run for President or are considering a bid include former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and California Congressman Duncan Hunter. Democrats have also complied a number of possible candidates. Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa has formed an exploratory committee yet is not considered one of the top contenders. That position belongs to Senator Hillary Clinton who denies a run yet has been campaigning for it for two years. Another top contender is first-term Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Other Democrats who have either taken steps to run or are considering a White House bid include Senators Joseph Biden of Delaware, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh of Indiana, John Kerry of Massachusetts, former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Quite an exhaustive field from both parties with equally exhaustive speculation as to who has the best chance and the most popularity as a Prsidential candidate and then as President. There is a certain amount of historical presidence that may also reveal who has a better chance of winning the Presidency besides ones personal preference or party affiliation. If followed this may also be a clue as to who each party selects to run as nominee for 2008.

First - A sitting Senator is doomed. Of the 43 men who have had the high honor of serving as President of The United States only two sitting Senators have been elected to office. The first was Warren G. Harding and the last was John F. Kennedy. Thirteen Senators including Harding and Kennedy have served as President but with the exception of the two mentioned all served in another capacity before election to the Presidency. Several were Vice President after the Senate and prior to the Presidency. Included in this number are Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, Harry Truman and Andrew Johnson. From a historical stand point unless a Senator leaves the Senate for more electionable pastures the Presidency looks beyond their reach. Yet in the 08 mix eight sitting Senators are considering a run with two more recent former Senators, Republican Bill Frist and Democrat John Edwards one of which, Frist, left the Senate to prepare for the run while Edwards has been in the private sector since his unsuccessful run as Kerry's VP. This by far is the majority of the candidates for 08 and historically this nation does not elect Senators. Why ? Well the best explanation that I have heard and agree with is that bickering from the Senate floor and maneuvering to pass a bill does not make a leader nor qualify one for the highest office in the land and the most powerful position in the world.

Second - Governors are very electable. Seventeen Governors have been elected to the White House and of that number eleven went straight from State Chief Executive to the Presidency. Recent history also favors Governors for of the last five Presidents only Bush 41 was not a Governor and three of those four were Governors as they ran for President. Only Reagan was eight years removed from his Governors chair in California before the Presidency and in that time he was running for President for 1976 and his election year of 1980. Several of the seventeen served as Vice president before the Presidency including Teddy Roosevelt and Martin Van Buren. Four of the current crop of 08 , two Republicans and two Democrats are or have recently been Governors. I include as the fifth in that number Giuliani because as Mayor of New York City he precided over a city government that is larger than many US states and as such offers similar executive experience. If Giuliani is elected he will join Grover Cleveland as the only former Mayor elected to the Presidency. Cleveland served as New York City Mayor also but went from Governor of New York to the Presidency. Executive is the key word concerning the viabilty with the voter for Governors winning the Presidency. The nation historically views the executive experience of a Governor as a strong qualification to step into the Presidency since each has governed at the helm of a state government.

Third - House members fair poorly. Seventeen House members have been elected President but only two, Lincoln and Garfield served in the House just prior to the Presidency with Garfield being the only sitting House member to ever be elected President. One President, John Quincy Adams was elected to the House after his Presidency and John Tyler served in the Confererate House after serving as President of The United States. From a historical stand point this does not bode well for Newt Gingrich whose last elected office was Representative from Georgia and Speaker of the House. Of course his possible candidacy could be a history making presidence as aSpeaker of the House has never been elected President. It would seem historically that the same applies to House members as Senators, maneuvering and bickering on the House does not an executive make.

Fourth - Vice President's do well. Fourteen Vice Presidents have been become President. With the exception of Richard Nixon each served as President immediatly after their Vice Presidency. Four assumed office by Constitutional law after a Presidential assasination of which two were elected in their own right in the next election. Four others assumed the Presidency after their predeccesor died in office again two were later elected in their own right. One, Ford assumed the office after Presidential resignation and was not re-elected. As a whole though the office of Vice President of the United Sates receives a good deal of electability for President. Of the current crop that has shown serious asperations for 2008 none are or have been Vice President. Only speculation by certain pundints places former VP Al Gore in the mix as he has repeadedly denied entrance for 08 but some of his actions have shown otherwise. Until the Truman Presidency the office of Vice President has been one that was more a Constitutional necessity that an active and involved member of the administration. The last fifty years has seen the emergence of a highly involved VP which has made the selection of a running mate a far more important issue than prior to Truman since the VP is now involved in policy and action taken on that policy. Being the number two seems to give the electorate the confidence to allow the office of Vice President as stong contender for President.

To this point none of the field of possible 2008 candidates whether Republican or Democrat has shown the backing of the electorate to make them stand out as the leading contender to follow President Bush. Recent polling has Giuliani leading among those who have made their Presidential asperations known. If history holds true to the election of a President most of the current contenders are not electable. The nation favors candidates who have had executive experience in government and House and Senate members fall short of that qualification in the eyes of the electorate and this represents the majority of the 08 possibles. Of course the final word for Presidential election comes from the voter. With history as a teacher party officials and candidates would do well to back a nominee with executive experience in governing which looks very good for Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee for the GOP and Richardson for the Democrats.

Ken Taylor

21 Comments:

Anonymous mudkitty said...

I'm going to give you some insider info, so mark my words and remember you heard it here first.

It will be Gore/Clinto, in that order, and they will win.

Not even the reptilian brain can resist symmetry like that.

5:37 PM, November 19, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting analysis. One problem though -- Huckabee is a Republican.

6:14 PM, November 19, 2006  
Blogger highboy said...

Not to mention that Hillary won't even get the nomination. Everyone in her party is pissed at her. All early polls show Rudy and McCain have more support for the Presidency than any potential candidate from either party. Which is weird, because I would think that both are an embarassment to both parties.

2:43 AM, November 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Huckabee is a republican...and is going to ROCK the GOP nomination process. www.mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com

9:50 AM, November 20, 2006  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Anonymous, forgive the blunder at the end of the post. I know that Huchabee is Republican. The correction has been made.

Mudkitty, your confidence seem to be in contrast to much of the speculation at this point. While Hillary seems to be leading the pack for the Dems, she trails both Giuliani and McCain in a head to head run.

Highboy. Like you I'm not sure that Hillary can get the nomination because if she satisfies the liberal base then she cannot win a general election because she isolates the moderates who may vote Dem. If she tries to satisfy moderates then she angers the liberal base and her money and nomination chances are samll. She's in a catch 22

10:42 AM, November 20, 2006  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

Mark my words. Hillary is a distraction (for you guys) a "Hillary's Comet" if you will. Ignoremy advice at your own peril. I don't know why I'm giving you advice. I must like you. I hope you don't take it.

Please, please, please, bore the country to death with your Hillary obsession!!! Ignore the real problems, since the dems are here to take care of the real problems.

11:02 AM, November 20, 2006  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

Mudkitty, I only brought Hillary up in the post because most believe that she will run and the post was on 2008 and historical observations that could indicate what type of candidate the country may vote for. I am certainly not obsessed by her, I am not nor ever have even been impressed by her!

11:33 AM, November 20, 2006  
Blogger Gayle said...

"The Dems are here to take care of the real problems." ROTFALMAO! I believe that's the funniest comment I've ever read!

Obsessed by her you certainly are not, nor are either of us impressed with her. Once upon a time I was hoping for this country to have a woman president. With women like Hillary and Comrade Pelosavitch (I stole that; it's not original) running around, I've changed my mind. Of course there are a lot of men moonbats out there too; it's just discouraging that two of the most prominent political women in the world have to be such airheads! So far, Condi is the only one that I can be proud of, and sometimes she seems far to mollifying for my taste.

12:37 PM, November 20, 2006  
Blogger lilfeathers2000 said...

I just don't have the strength to talk politics today.

*:-.,_,.-:*'``'*:-.,_,.-:*'``'*:-.,_,.-:*
Its Click N Comment
Monday
Have a Blessed Day
*:-.,_,.-:*'``'*:-.,_,.-:*'``'*:-.,_,.-:*

2:38 PM, November 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

John Benton Here,
Ken the site keeps getting Better And Better. Amazing Job with everything. I dont know how to write, but I know talent when I see it. And Ken has it. Great job and Mega Dittos to you my freind. Through you, Reaganomics will never die.
John Oliver Benton III

7:21 PM, November 20, 2006  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

I have to agree with your reader above, I like Mike Huckabee. I have for quite a while now. He would be a great President.

He would put the Whole Country on a diet, and I dont mean just weight wise :-)

12:34 AM, November 21, 2006  
Anonymous Seth said...

I recently read an analysis whose conclusion was that Pelosi's ascention to Speaker might well have a negative (well, positive, from my POV) effect on Hillary's chances for winning the Presidency, because a first, such as a female POTUS, is a sensitive issue (like it or not, gender will bear heavily on the personal debate level of many voters) and Nancy's high visibility vs her extreme left agendas will have a tarnishing effect on Hillary.

To large extent, I agree with that assessment. If the Dems expect to run Hillary, they shouldn't have made Pelosi Speaker Of The House.

Fortunately for the Republicans, the liberal controlled Democrats are purely agenda driven and are incapable of thinking objectively.

They want it all, and they want it now! :-)

My ideal for a match-up would be Tom Tancredo as President and Newt Gingrich, as actively involved as Dick Cheney has been, as Veep. Of course, that's not gonna happen...

It looks to me like Giuliani does have the best shot for President, which I could accept despite a few of his views I disagree with, but McCain seems to have a good shot as well, and if he were the nominee, I would probably vote Indy for the first time ever, if there was an acceptable candidate running.

5:56 AM, November 21, 2006  
Blogger highboy said...

"Mark my words. Hillary is a distraction (for you guys) a "Hillary's Comet" if you will."

Holy crap I agree with mudkitty! And a good joke by the way: "Hillary's Comet".

8:51 AM, November 21, 2006  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

The hardcore GOP base hates and sees through flip-flopping McCain.

And they just love that McCain/Feingold bill!

11:16 AM, November 21, 2006  
Anonymous Seth said...

Mudkitty --

McCain is good for neither party, he has his groin planted firmly on center aisle -- whatever is good for McCain is what counts, and screw everybody else, Dem or Rep.

11:25 AM, November 21, 2006  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

I agree with Seth for once.

So why is McCain the GOP frontrunner for '08?

10:15 AM, November 22, 2006  
Anonymous Seth said...

Because he knows how to "work a crowd".

7:11 PM, November 25, 2006  
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