OBAMA REELECTION AND THE RECENT THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANOTHER TERM

In an election year especially one where the Presidency is at stake dozens of factors can make or break an incumbent. Everything from economic woes to foreign policy troubles as well as a host of domestic problems can give a strong indication as to whether a sitting President has much of a chance for reelection. Of course as is always the case as Yogi Berra stated, "it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings," so until voters actually go to the polls on November 6, nothing is set in stone.

Still there are many things that can give indication as to a Presidents reelection based on history and other factors that are taking place in elections that precede the general election in November. If these recent factors hold true Obama got a three strike blow in the last two weeks from three different elections each leaving a political outcome that affects the constituency in an almost polar change but for Obama it can indicate a move toward eliminating incumbents.

The first took place in France. Now on the surface the outcome of the French election looks like a typical French disaster but when looked at in light of another election in Europe it actually has meaning for Obama's chances. France for the first time in more than 20 years elected a known Socialist candidate to the Presidency. While not unusual for France the new President replaces one who by French standards was considered a conservative. So how does this play for Obama's reelection?

The French change has to be taken into account with the second strike for Obama that took place this past weekend in Germany.  The German State of North Rhine-Westphalia in Western Germany was a more conservative legislature as is their Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her party was beaten rather handily during weekend elections which changes the political dynamic of Germany's government.  So two conservative governments fall and you ask how does this affect Obama ?

The third strike came right here at home and it not only shows a worldwide backlash to incumbents but from an American political stand point shows a shift toward conservatism that even the die hard political pundits didn't see coming.  Indiana voted out after 35 years moderate to almost liberal GOP senator Dick Lugar in favor of a very conservative Tea Party candidate Richard Mourdock.  The left and GOP establishment is going crazy over this one and for good reason.

Not only does the major defeat of Lugar, 60% - 40%, show a decided shift to conservatism as opposed to Obama's radical liberal/socialism, but if one takes into account the two elections in Europe we are seeing a backlash to incumbents that should have The White House shaking in their boots.  Sitting politicians are falling over the world and while the move in Europe is against more conservative governments, that unlike American conservatism is more politically akin to US left of center moderates whose polices are also more akin to Obama's,  here in the US the incumbent backlash is decidedly against Obama since Lugar, though Republican was a known Obama supporter.

As stated at the beginning of this post, "it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings, " but those in The White House have to see the reality that she is at least getting her formal wear ready and warming her voice up to sing the swan song of the failed Presidency of Barack Obama.

Ken Taylor