GINGRICH, ROMNEY, SANTORUM OR PAUL - PRIMARIES FAR FROM OVER

If one were to judge by the media, pundits and the GOP establishment the Republican Primaries are over and the GOP nominee is Mitt Romney. If one were to listen to the news cycle of the last few days, Rick Santorum is the new alternative to Romney and with a win in Minnesota will change the entire dynamic of the election. If one were to listen to Newt Gingrich the Primaries are far from over and nothing is even close to being decided.

It is well known by anyone who reads my postings that I am a Gingrich supporter but this time my agreement with him is not based on my support for him but the actual facts about the Primary system and the way delegates are assigned. Based on the actual facts Newt is right the Primaries are FAR from over.

For instance the delegate count that is being made public by the media has Romney with 101, Newt at 29 and Santorum at 17 with Paul in last place at 9. The RNC which is the official delegate count has a completely different number based on true delegate assignment and how each state proportions delegates. According to the RNC, Rommney has ONLY 76 with Newt at 29, PAUL at 9 and Santorum at 2. The Iowa delegates are non binding and have yet to be officially assigned and have the authority to vote as they wish at the Convention. Then there is still the challenge of the, "winner take all," status of Florida based on the RNC rule that no State can assign winner takes all before March 6. This explains Romney's lower numbers.

The States who hold Caucasus today, February 7 are ALL non binding and no delegates will actually be assigned no matter how the media spins it. These delegates will be decided by State Conventions to be held in April and most even at that point will still have the ability to vote as they wish at the National Convention in August.

Of all of the State Primaries and Caucuses left in 2012 only three states are winner takes all with the rest proportioned and most non binding no matter what the result. Additionally those that are proportioned are not based on the state totals but by the winner of each specific Congressional District in the state so the numbers that will be running on TV screens as far as total percentage of the vote for that state will mean nothing since the individual winner in each district will receive the delegates from that particular District.

I know it sounds complicated and VERY convoluted but that is the way the Primary cookie crumbles so to speak which reinforces Newts claim that this race if far from over and no matter what the pundits, the media or the GOP establishment claims there is no real front runner nor any candidate at this point who has much of an advantage over another for quite some time to come.

Ken Taylor