BARACK OBAMA SLIPPING, WHILE MCCAIN MAKES GAINS - HOW ACCURATE ARE THE POLLS

This has been an election season for the books. Whether the Republican or the Democrat tickets win the election both will provide a first in American politics. Sarah Palin could be the first female Vice President while Barack Obama could be the first African American President.

Throughout this campaign the polls have been all over the board. During the Primary season polling missed the boat completely while occasionally they hit the mark. Since the Conventions there have been trends for both candidates and shifts but one thing has been consistent, none of the polls have shown a consistency in numbers when comparing one poll to another.

For instance in today's polling, the range is everywhere from a tie with the AP poll to Obama up by 11 if you believe the ABC poll. According to the the Investor's Business Daily poll shown on the right Obama only leads by three which places the race well within the margin of error. I posted this particular poll because of the detailed break down in the polling and IBD has been right on the mark on election day in the last three Presidential contests.

But with that said can polling be trusted to be accurate and fair ? Not really. First one has to consider the polling sample and how that affects the results of the poll. For instance immediately after the Republican Convention Gallup used a polling sample showing 33% Democrat and 31% Republican resulting in a 7 point McCain lead.

Two weeks later Gallup released a poll showing Obama with a 9 point lead. Yet when the polling samples are taken into account at 40% Democrat and only 29% Republican it becomes obvious how those numbers changed in the course of two weeks. Using the same polling samples in the Gallup poll as were used immediately after the GOP Convention the 9 point Obama lead becomes a tie or a 2 point McCain lead depending on how the calculations are handled.

Another major aspect to take into account concerning polling has to do with the totally unbalanced media coverage. Obviously many networks like NBC are , "in the tank," for Obama and either like NBC have lost all journalistic objectivity or lean so heavily in favoring Obama that the majority of reports concerning McCain and especially Governor Palin are negative.

In fact a recent study shows that 63% of reporting about McCain is negative while only 29% of reporting about Obama is negative. Considering the news coverage of the campaign experts attribute about 5% of the polling lead that Obama shows in many of the polls to the unbalanced coverage favoring Obama. Many agree that this 5% as in past unbalanced coverage does not carry to actual votes counts on election day. If you deduct 5% from most of the polling Obama's lead drops to an average of about 4 or 5 points. Taking into account then the larger sampling of Democrats and this race becomes a dead heat and within the margin of error across the board.

Another aspect that is neglected when polls are discussed is the experience factor. Fox reported on a Rasmussen poll taken in five key states, VA, NC, PENN, Ohio and FL. The polling showed McCain up by 2 in FL and Ohio with Obama up from between 3 and 5 in the other three states. But when the question of who voters thought was more experienced for the Presidency, McCain lead in the experience factor by more than 19 points in every one of the five states.

The historical record also must be taken into account when considering the accuracy of polling. For instance in 1980 going into the week before the election Jimmy Carter polled 10 to 12 point higher than Ronald Reagan and on election day Reagan was behind in the polls by 9 points. He won the election by nearly a 10 point margin and an electoral landslide. Also in 1984 on election day polls showed Walter Mondale only 3 points behind Reagan, within the margin of error. Reagan won by 18 points and the largest electoral landslide in history.

In the last two Presidential elections Al Gore lead in the polls by 10 points on election day 2000 and John Kerry lead by 6 also on election day 2004. Looking at another election whose polling mirrors this year is the 1948 election between President Harry Truman and Governor Thomas Dewey. Going into election day Dewey lead Truman in polling anywhere from 5 to 15 points, ( sounds familiar doesn't it ?), when the numbers were counted and the results were in Truman actually beat Dewey by 4.4 points with an electoral victory of 303 for Truman , 189 for Dewey and 39 for Strom Thurmond with 266 needed to win. After the election according to the son of George Gallup the founder of the Gallup organization, Gallup had to personally visit more than 30 newspapers, " to lure them back after 30 canceled their poll service."

The more accurate polling takes approximately five to ten days to give a balanced and reasonable account of what respondents are thinking. With the 24/7 news cycle and the coverage which cries for numbers on an almost moment by moment basis, pollsters are taking snap daily polling that give numbers that are based more on current emotional responses to headlines rather than true voter decisions on how they will vote come election day. As such we see varied numbers and numbers that change sometimes dramatically every day.

The bottom line is that the only real poll that counts is the one that occurs on election day when voters enter a private booth or cubicle and express their true thoughts as to which candidate they believe will best lead this Nation for the next four years. Then all of the media hype and the campaign rhetoric means nothing as voters are faced with the guidance of their own conscience and the decision as to what they want for this country over the next Presidential term.

Ken Taylor