INEVITABILITY IN THE GOP RANKS
A recent Gallop poll suggests that Republicans are beginning to realize the inevitability of a John McCain nomination and as such are accepting it whether they like it or not. Gallop shows McCain with a huge 53 to 27 lead over Mike Huckabee and that 51% of Republicans are, "satisfied, " with John McCain as the nominee while 45 % would have preferred another candidate.
Does this mean that Republicans are changing their beliefs to match those of McCain or just accepting what seem inevitable ? I beleive it is the latter and the voters realizing that McCain is racing toward the nomination, understand the fundamental trouble with either Hillary or Obama and are accepting McCain since voting for the alternative in not a possibility.
The Gallop poll also compared McCain to the two Democrat contenders and he did fairly well especially against Hillary. Head to head, McCain edges Hillary, 49 to 48 among likely voters, but of course that's within the margin of error. Among registered voters, it's a 48 to 48 tie, and among adults, it's McCain again, 48 percent to 47 percent.
McCain did not fair quite as well against Obama. With likely voters it was Obama by 4 and with registered voters his lead dropped to 3. Yet the poll also shows Hillary with a 47 to 44 lead over Obama for the Democrat nomination.
Over the next few weeks as we finish up the Primary season these numbers are likely to stay fairly constant. Democrats will be taking more of the headlines since their contest is a fight to the finish and the, "Rock Star, " Obama has become the media favorite. This combined with the discussion over the problem developing concerning Democrat Superdelegates, will keep the Dems at the forefront in political headlines since the nomination of McCain is all but set.
Because of the constant media barrage for the Dems, the GOP will take a somewhat second tier in headlines and as such polling will indicate strength toward Democrats because of the high visibility and of course the bias that leans left in much of the polling.
Obamas surge in popularity, in this writers opinion, is not so much because of his message of change but because there is a certain amount of discontent among Democrats voters with the Clintons for two reasons. The attacks against Obama, whether true or untrue that have been coming from Bill and many are just tired of the usual Bill and Hillary circus. That and the constant reminders of the Peyton Place atmosphere that surrounded the Clintons while in the White House that still exists today.
Yet when all is said and done and the Superdelegates are counted at the Convention the Clinton Machine will finally get her the nomination. Obama will have a strong enough position to demand the VP spot if he wants it and Hillary will have little choice but to accept it.
The GOP second spot will not be as cut an dried. Though he has not admitted it the only logical reason that Huckabee is still around is to gain enough delegates to push for the second spot. He would need to win 83% of the remining delegates to win the nomination and that is an impossibility. Ron Paul....well he must just like the spotlight because he has no chance to even force changes in the party platform much less use his pitiful delegate totals to gain anything from the ticket. He is just sticking around to be a thorn....period.
Several names have appeared for the VP slot other than Huckabee. Mitt Romney has not endorsed any candidate and because of this he still holds his delegates until the Convention. He could use tham as leverage for the VP slot if McCain needs them to win on the first ballot. South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford has also been talked about. While a strong Conservative, Sanford is not greatly known outside of the Southeast and may not help the ticket that much.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty have also been mentioned along with former candidate Fred Thompson. Most agree that whoever McCain picks should have strong Conservative credentials. While the VP pick is not as important for the General Election a strong Conservative will go along way to McCains gaining the support of many GOP voters.
Of course most of this is just early speculation and McCain could pull a rabbit out of his hat that no one expects. That will have to wait until the Convention during Labor Day weekend. There is still alot of time and a good bit of political manuevering that will take place before September which will shape the platform and the GOP pick for the number two slot.
This is turning into an election year that no one predicted and that even the most savvy anylist still has to scratch his head over and rethink on a daily basis.
Ken Taylor
Does this mean that Republicans are changing their beliefs to match those of McCain or just accepting what seem inevitable ? I beleive it is the latter and the voters realizing that McCain is racing toward the nomination, understand the fundamental trouble with either Hillary or Obama and are accepting McCain since voting for the alternative in not a possibility.
The Gallop poll also compared McCain to the two Democrat contenders and he did fairly well especially against Hillary. Head to head, McCain edges Hillary, 49 to 48 among likely voters, but of course that's within the margin of error. Among registered voters, it's a 48 to 48 tie, and among adults, it's McCain again, 48 percent to 47 percent.
McCain did not fair quite as well against Obama. With likely voters it was Obama by 4 and with registered voters his lead dropped to 3. Yet the poll also shows Hillary with a 47 to 44 lead over Obama for the Democrat nomination.
Over the next few weeks as we finish up the Primary season these numbers are likely to stay fairly constant. Democrats will be taking more of the headlines since their contest is a fight to the finish and the, "Rock Star, " Obama has become the media favorite. This combined with the discussion over the problem developing concerning Democrat Superdelegates, will keep the Dems at the forefront in political headlines since the nomination of McCain is all but set.
Because of the constant media barrage for the Dems, the GOP will take a somewhat second tier in headlines and as such polling will indicate strength toward Democrats because of the high visibility and of course the bias that leans left in much of the polling.
Obamas surge in popularity, in this writers opinion, is not so much because of his message of change but because there is a certain amount of discontent among Democrats voters with the Clintons for two reasons. The attacks against Obama, whether true or untrue that have been coming from Bill and many are just tired of the usual Bill and Hillary circus. That and the constant reminders of the Peyton Place atmosphere that surrounded the Clintons while in the White House that still exists today.
Yet when all is said and done and the Superdelegates are counted at the Convention the Clinton Machine will finally get her the nomination. Obama will have a strong enough position to demand the VP spot if he wants it and Hillary will have little choice but to accept it.
The GOP second spot will not be as cut an dried. Though he has not admitted it the only logical reason that Huckabee is still around is to gain enough delegates to push for the second spot. He would need to win 83% of the remining delegates to win the nomination and that is an impossibility. Ron Paul....well he must just like the spotlight because he has no chance to even force changes in the party platform much less use his pitiful delegate totals to gain anything from the ticket. He is just sticking around to be a thorn....period.
Several names have appeared for the VP slot other than Huckabee. Mitt Romney has not endorsed any candidate and because of this he still holds his delegates until the Convention. He could use tham as leverage for the VP slot if McCain needs them to win on the first ballot. South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford has also been talked about. While a strong Conservative, Sanford is not greatly known outside of the Southeast and may not help the ticket that much.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty have also been mentioned along with former candidate Fred Thompson. Most agree that whoever McCain picks should have strong Conservative credentials. While the VP pick is not as important for the General Election a strong Conservative will go along way to McCains gaining the support of many GOP voters.
Of course most of this is just early speculation and McCain could pull a rabbit out of his hat that no one expects. That will have to wait until the Convention during Labor Day weekend. There is still alot of time and a good bit of political manuevering that will take place before September which will shape the platform and the GOP pick for the number two slot.
This is turning into an election year that no one predicted and that even the most savvy anylist still has to scratch his head over and rethink on a daily basis.
Ken Taylor
posted by The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth | 10:53 AM
2 Comments:
If Obama sweeps the Potomac Primary today (i.e., Chesapeake Primary) and continues to build momentum there is no way the super delegates will vote against him.
Most of the Super Delegates are current elected officials. They will see that Obama wins elections and brings out a lot of new, younger, and independent voters. There is no way they are going to shoot themselves in the foot by going against the wishes of the majority of actual voters.
That said, things can change and momentum can switch. Clinton and Obama are tied right now and if she were to win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania it could keep them even.
My own view is that Obama's momentum will carry him to bigger and bigger wins and he will win one or several of the above states.
the undelying question in your post is the following:
What is the state of Conservatism in America, what is it changing into, and finally, who is (are) the next standard-bearers of the right? Ask anybody what does it mean to be a conservative and you will get a myriad of definitions; none versed in the definition of the classic term. I'll bet McCain cannot define "conservative" off the cuff...
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