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HISTORICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK - "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other." ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Sunday, May 06, 2007

GOP PRESIDENTIAL RUN 08 - THE SUNDAY COMMENTARY

Here we are nine months before the first Presidential primaries and ten before the Super Tuesday Primaries on February 5, 2008 and Presidential politics is dominating much of the news. There have already been two, "debates" with another just around the corner and as many of you may have noticed the reaction so far in very much , "ho hum, " by the voters in regards to the candidates.

From the Democrat side you have the daily wrangling of Hillary and Obama with an occasional John Edwards sound bite thrown in for good measure. After that everyone else is pretty much forgettable. As this article is dealing with the GOP candidates I'm not even going to get into this battle except to say that neither candidate in spite of their rhetoric to the contrary actually excites the average voter. Hillary is scary and says whatever she thinks necessary to gain a vote and Obama though charismatic is really an unknown whose , "rock star, " status comes from being different as far as Democrat politics is concerned though his record, what little there is of it, is a typical liberal. Edwards.... well he's Edwards with the $400.00 hair cuts!

From the GOP stand point the fact that an unannounced contender, namely former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson creates far more excitement than the announced candidates leaves much to be said about the current GOP field. Thompson has created quite a stir as he contemplates an 08 run with his charisma, name recognition, ( after all he does have the advantage of being on TV every week and in reruns), a strong record in the Senate, the fact that try as they may no one has found any, "dirt, " on him and who else shows up for an interview to the tune of the," Law and Order," theme song! This writer likes what he sees and hears from Thompson and waits patiently for his announcement.

So the question arises, "why does the GOP field not generate much interest with Republican or any other voter for that matter ?" Part of the , "ho hum," attitude is due to the fact that we are only a few months removed from the 2006 election and before we had a chance to take a breath after that circus everybody and his brother was announcing a run for President.

This early run is largely caused by the massive amounts of money a candidate is forced to raise in order to mount a Presidential run especially a serious and successful one. Additionally next year the primary races have moved up dramatically. In past Presidential years New Hampshire came in late January followed by the Iowa Caucus and then the South Carolina Primary in early February.

Following this start there were scattered primaries all the way through to the big Kahuna in June, the California Primary. Now because of all the states holding primaries after South Carolina feeling left out in the cold in selecting a nominee, nearly every State has moved their Primary to February 5, 2008 making the selection of the nominee coming very early in the Presidential election year.

Now officially the nominees will not be crowned until the Conventions but because of the large number of early primaries they will be known by February 5. So everyone is hustling to get a quick start and the voters are not responding.

The GOP candidates themselves also are not generating much interest. While Rudi Giuliani is leading in most polls and there is some interest in him because of his handling of New York City after 9/11 and his strong record as Mayor, he has a lot of personal baggage that has voters questioning him and for the GOP conservative base many of his social stands have them worried.

John McCain, who consistently runs second to Rudi, has a considerable reputation with GOP voters and that reputation is not one that is very favorable. He is considered by many as somewhat of a turn coat because of his coming out against the GOP on many issues while in the majority and as such the press jumped onto his band wagon since it made Republicans, "look bad, " as far as the press was concerned. He made a number of enemies in the party with his heading the, "gang of fourteen, " during the Supreme Court vacancy nominations and also the McCain/Feingold Campaign Finance bill which gave birth to 527's like Move On .org.

Mitt Romney the former Governor of arguably the most liberal State in the Union, Massachusetts consistently runs third in most polls and is somewhat an unknown by many voters. He looks good, sounds good but has some lingering questions with GOP voters because of where he hails from. While on the surface being a Republican Governor in a very liberal State sounds good , one wonders whether his , "success, " stems from following Republican ideals and policies or because as a Republican he was all to willing to compromise with a Democrat Legislature in his State. His legacy after he left office did not continue as his successor is a Democrat.

Mike Huckabee, the GOP Governor of Arkansas is also an unknown who has some conservative ideas but also some very liberal ones too. Many in the GOP also remember what happened the last time the Governor of Arkansas was elected President and though a Republican it does leave some lingering thoughts. That combined with the fact that he does not stir much excitement in his own State has him showing poorly in the polls.

The true conservatives in the announced field, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo have great voting records a strong conservative back ground and stance on policy but in facing absolute facts about Presidential runs, none have the backing or the name recognition to win the nomination nor wage a successful campaign against the Democrat nominee. Which is a pity because each of them as conservatives could bring to the party what most Republicans are longing for, a return to Reagan Conservatism.

Then last and least are Tommy Thompson who when he announced his run most said , "who, ' and could not even remember what Cabinet Post he held. It was Health and Human Services Secretary for those of you who wish to know. And of course good old Ron Paul who makes his second Presidential bid. He ran on the Libertarian ticket in 1988 against Reagan which was a real lost cause. He then shifted to the GOP and was elected to Congress but his stances are still very much Libertarian, anti -war and isolationist.

So there you have it the 2008 GOP Presidential Field. The only real advantage that any of them who are announced right now is that they are not Democrats. But as a whole none of the announced field is offering much to stir the faithful and the party. The void left in not having an incumbent either President or Vice President for the first time since Eisenhower ran in 1952 has opened up the flood gates for candidates. The Democrats are struggling to find a voice who interests the voters and unfortunately the Republicans are too. To this all I can add in closing is RUN, FRED RUN!

Ken Taylor

28 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

RON PAUL '08 is running away with it in NH!
http://www.pledgebank.com/RonPaul1000

3:25 PM, May 06, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello? Ron won the first debate and you don't even have him listed in your poll....

3:26 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Toby said...

How can Ron Paul not be listed?

3:44 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Homeland Stupidity said...

I have a concern about your criticism of Ron Paul as "libertarian." This is, of course, true, but what you forget is that it's also true that this is conservative.

You also call his conservative foreign policy "isolationist," without perhaps understanding what that means. Isolationism is what George Bush is dragging us into. Ron Paul's policy is the Founders' policy of free trade with friendly nations and not screwing around where we have no business being.

Ron Paul is exactly right when he says that Republicans have historically been the party of peace. That's something the neocons which have attempted to take over the GOP have forgotten in their drive for endless war.

4:22 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger The Liberal Lie The Conservative Truth said...

I installed the poll before Paul and T. Thompson announced. Sorry for the over sight.

As far as isolationist and anti-war, there comes a time even with Republican's who have been more the party of peace, ther comes a time when you must fight because that fight was brought upon you.

The war against Islamic fanatics is one such fight.

You are right historically most of our wars started while Democrats were in the White House, but that does not mean that GOP will not fight when necessary and now is that time!

5:38 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Gayle said...

Fred Thompson is doing very well for someone who hasn't even declared he's running. Ron Paul? I'm sorry but I don't believe he has a chance. I think Thompson will join the race, but he's playing it very smart by waiting. Also, for someone who's not spending a cent on a campaign, at least not yet, we're sure hearing a lot about him. We may be in for a surprise, Ken.

I hope you had a wonderful weekend. :)

8:33 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Gayle said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

8:34 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Gayle said...

I deleted that comment. Somehow my comment was published twice.

8:35 PM, May 06, 2007  
Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Ken,

Great Post!

I'm sorry some of your new Ron Paul junkies have invaded you from my blog! They are right there every single time I post about Fred Thompson, or at least the Anonymous one who also goes by the name "Real Conservative" LOL!

And as Mike from Mike's America also put it on my blog "Beware of anyone calling themselves True or Real Conservatives because they turn out to be anything but."

Just leave Ron Paul off the list Ken, he is as Wordsmith put it over at my place is "A Joke"

Ron Paul is a SCREAMING LIBERTARIAN, whose mission is to Impeach President Bush if he gets half the chance. He is half baked, and a few bricks shy of a full load.

If Ron Paul had his way EVERY SINGLE Amendment to the Constitution would be taken away, and we would be following the Original. Which is some cases wouldnt be bad, but our Founding Fathers never even dreamed there would be a threat to our Nation Called Al-Queda!

I find it appauling that Ron Paul changed his party to Republican, showed up at the Reagan Library for this debate, tried to even consider being anything resembling "Reaganesque" when he is anything but!

Ron Paul is to radical for me. I want a Conservative that is in tune with the problems we are facing today, not the problems we faced 200 years ago!

Sweet Jesus, RUN FRED RUN!!!!!

3:15 AM, May 07, 2007  
Blogger Rob said...

It seems to me that Ron Paul will have solid backing from those traditional conservatives who believe in fiscal discipline and limited government. But, he has virtually no chance of winning because he is not bought and paid for by any large lobby group.

The folks who are currently running are largely Washington insiders who are big government, big deficit folks. Their foolish support for the Iraq war and President Bush will be their undoing in a general election - no matter who is nominated.

Given his hawkish stance on Iraq and his questionable positions to social conservatives, McCain won't win the nomination. Rudy supports abortion rights - he won't win the nomination. Mitt has changed too many positions in recent months to be considered a serious candidate.

Now Fred is an interesting potential candidate. He can just sit back and wait to see what happens with Iraq. Then in summer, he can take a position that counters the President and he will be the only serious candidate for Republicans. It should be interesting.

12:05 PM, May 07, 2007  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

Thompson? Be careful what you wish for. Thompson is a Hollywood creation.

2:01 PM, May 07, 2007  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

Thompson? Be careful what you wish for. Thompson is a Hollywood creation.

A "pure" Hollywood creation, mudkitty? Riiight...and Fred Thompson shouldn't run! I mean, c'mon...no one in his right mind would ever vote an actor into the Presidential big chair, now, would he?

Ken...have you thought of checking to see if your 3 or 4 Ron Paulinites aren't one and the same commenter?

Marie,

I think Ron changing parties shows that he actually does have some smarts. If you want to effect change, the easiest way to do so is within one of the two major parties.

1:53 AM, May 08, 2007  
Blogger Rob said...

Fred is in a great position to get the Republican nomination. He doesn't have to really put his Iraq position out there and can just wait. Bush had hoped to "run out the clock" with his presidency and leave Iraq for the next president, but given the continued worsening civil war and the increasing number of American casualties in Iraq, the Republicans in Congress are going to join Dems and put in a timetable for ending the mess later this year. The Republicans don't want to get blown out again next year because of their foolish support for a highly unpopular war that is being prosecuted incompetently by a highly unpopular president.

Then, Fred can swoop in to save the day by saying he was for ending the war and bringing the troops home. All of the other candidates (except for Ron Paul) already have the Iraq baggage around their necks and won't want to look like flip floppers.

The thing that is most irritating about the Republicans in Congress is that they know Iraq is a lost cause because of Bush's failings as the "Commander Guy." Bush knows it too, which is why he is looking to hire a "War Czar." The Congressional Republicans know Bush's troop escalation is not working and will not work. It is obvious they want to end the war and will work with Dems to do that later this year. But, they are allowing an incompetent president to escalate troop deaths on a failed policy in an effort to try to win some political points. It is backfiring badly and they know it - they would be better off working with Dems and joining the majority of Americans who want to put in a timetable for withdrawal to end Bush's Iraq misadventure.

10:34 AM, May 08, 2007  
Blogger Mike's America said...

Still got that nasty moonbat infection hunh Ken?

I know the feeling.

11:00 PM, May 08, 2007  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

Oh please, nothing would put the stake in the heart of the republican party faster than Thompson getting the nod.

Run Thompson! Run!

He's your hail mary pass, but it won't work.

The only reason you're even considering this Hollywood actor is because you desperate, and disillusioned with your numerous choices.

12:09 PM, May 10, 2007  
Blogger Robert said...

Which is why the left jsut doesn't get it.

Thompson is the preferred choice because of his beliefs. We are desperate, but it is deperate for a candidate who is a true conservative, not a candidate like Clinton who changes posture depending on polls.

3:03 PM, May 10, 2007  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

Robert - you don't even know what his "beliefs" are.

And belief is the opposite of knowledge.

And Thompson is more Hollyweird than you know. You guys don't know squat about Thompson. But it will "trickle down..." And you guys will be left in the ditch.

Thompson is your hail mary pass, and it's too early in the game for a hail mary pass. It reeeeeeeeks of desperation.

12:46 PM, May 11, 2007  
Blogger Robert said...

And belief is the opposite of knowledge.

Which has to be the most stupid thing I have ever heard the idiot say.

Thompson was a conservative voice as a senator. A real conservative, not a republican.

4:10 PM, May 12, 2007  
Anonymous mudkitty said...

Really - you can't even name his core beliefs.

And belief is the opposite of knowledge. With knowledge, belief becomes unnecessary.

Belief is faith without knowledge, or in-spite/despite of knowledge.

11:30 AM, May 16, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/ron-paul-president-2008

Let your voices be heard for Ron Paul

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