AL QAEDA -- STRONGER OR WEAKER.

This morning I was watching Fox News and caught an interesting interview with Robert Pape author of a new book on Al Qaeda with the interesting title, "Dying To Win." The brief premise of the book is this, that Al Qaeda is not weaker but stronger since the 9/11 attacks and the proof of this is that since 9/11 there have been more attacks, (40) than before 9/11 killing around 700 people. This is the result, according to Pape, of a comprehensive Al Qaeda strategy to stay away from large scale attacks against the US and concentrate on smaller attacks against our allies in the War on Terror to attempt to force them to pull out of the coalition. His premise further concludes that the belief by the US and our allies that the capture and/or killing of many of the leaders of AL Qaeda and the, "foot soldiers" has caused a general weakening of their ability is a falsehood and that just the opposite is true. His basis derives mainly from a memo found a while back in Denmark which makes reference to the above strategy and the, "future" Madrid and London attacks. Now, what will follow is my opinion on Pape's premise and what I believe is the condition of Al Qaeda. First a brief overview of Al Qaeda, (for a more detailed look click on this article's title). The group found its birth in 1988, highly decentralized with cells operating out of 26 countries. Although the Taliban when ruling Afghanistan offered a safe haven for operations and training the group as is the case now is highly fragmented. This Taliban protection was the necessity for removing them from power. The remainder of this article is my opinion based on current events and what has taken place since 9/11. Before 9/11 terrorism as a whole and Al Qaeda in particular were considered a nuisance that the courts could deal with from a criminal stand point. Therefore many Al Qaeda attacks are believed to have been missed or not recognized as such, which would dispel Mr. Pape's idea that more attacks have occurred since 9/11 than before. Al Qaeda's ability to create terror has been greatly diminished, one, by their attempts to prevent the establishment of a western and democratic form of government in Iraq by killing US soldiers and innocent citizens. These efforts are more concentrated in one arena rather than word wide, therefore diminishing the capability of a global style attack. Second, the intensity of the attacks both in Iraq and London have been greatly reduced in scope indicating a lesser ability to perform such attacks. Also the report this week of the drastic fall in support of Osama Bin Laden in the Middle East emphasizes a diminished ability to recruit thus making it more difficult to replace the, "foot soldiers" that are being killed or captured as a result of the war. Knowing the enemy and the enemies capabilities are essential in bringing the defeat of that enemy. Al Qaeda is still very dangerous and yes I believe that an attack in the US is inevitable but it is also falling into the trap of the terrorists to create chaos and fear by overestimating their capabilities as I believe Mr. Pape has done in his book. The war is far from over but the continual capture and/or killing of the leadership and foot soldiers with a diminished supply of replacements is one of the successes of the war. As has been said before the best way to defeat a terrorist is to find him and kill him before he has a chance to do the same. This is what the War on Terror is doing and will continue to do until terrorism as we know it is defeated!

Ken Taylor