Wednesday, March 07, 2012

SUPER TUESDAY, NEWT REBOUNDS, SANTORUM STAYS TOUGH, ROMNEY BIG LOSER

The GOP race for the 2012 nomination has not only proven there is no clear front runner but Super Tuesday has once again shown that Republican voters do not want Mitt Romney as the nominee as the former Massachusetts Governor while winning his home state and Vermont was the clear loser tonight.

The only real winner per say was Newt Gingrich who soundly and as expected won the Georgia Primary and as a result the majority of the 76 delegates up for grabs the largest total of the night. In fact his totals both state wide and by each district were enough to give the former Speaker nearly all of the delegates from the Peach State with Mitt Romney taking only a handful. The single largest state total of the night.

Many states including Romney's home state of Massachusetts did not assign any delegates. AP and other news outlets will make the assumption as they have been over the past month as to how they believe the non binding delegates will be assigned but the official RNC count will show that these non binding states are not counted in the actual delegate totals.

The remainder of the Super Tuesday States, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee while showing a particular candidate either, "winning," the state or a virtual tie as it seems Ohio will be as of this writing, will proportion delegates splitting them between each candidate in accordance to how they placed in state Congressional Districts. The candidate that won the district will receive two of the three delegates with the second place finisher receiving the third. This applies to ALL of the states which results in a very split allocation of Super Tuesday delegates except in Georgia where Newt won overwhelmingly.

Rick Santorum had a good night winning several delegates but more importantly continuing his status as a surging candidate who is an alternative to the now seemingly unpopular Romney. Newt rebounded enough that he cannot be counted out as several Southern States will hold Primaries soon and the big prize Texas coming in June which clearly is Newt country.

The only state among the entire fifty that is an absolute winner takes all state is California which could go to Ron Paul as many of his more liberal social ideas and weak foreign policy plans play well to the more liberal Republicans on the left coast. Those that aren't are conservative enough to give Newt a slight chance in California.

Many thought Super Tuesday would decide the nominee and the GOP establishment fully expected Romney to come out a clear winner. The establishment I am sure is scratching their head trying to figure out what to do since their fair haired, (literally), candidate is proving to be a non winner with rank and file Republicans.

The nomination is still up for grabs to all three candidates but Romney is clearly damaged goods after such a poor showing especially in Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Santorum stays steady and Newt is back in the game. This nomination is looking more likely to head to the Convention before being decided where delegates are only required to vote in accordance to their assigned candidate on the first ballot only. Then a free for all will ensue with the candidate who can best campaign for votes among Convention delegates taking the nomination.

So to quote Yogi Berra, "it ain't over 'till it's over." And fellow patriots this race for the GOP nomination is far from over with a long road ahead until August and the Republican Convention in Tampa, Florida.

Ken Taylor

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