Wednesday, March 14, 2012

SANTORUM BIG DAY BUT DELEGATES EVENLY SPLIT

Registering a win during any Primary this year doesn't necessarily mean that delegates will flow into any particular candidates column. Rick Santorum by the percentages squeaked by Newt Gingrich in both Mississippi and Alabama Primaries but the delegate count was basically an even split for all three candidates.

According to the AP, which previously has been assigning delegates according to assumptions but in this case the delegate count of both states is pretty cut and dried the count is a pretty even split. The official RNC totals will not be available for a few days as all Congressional Districts must be verified but again this time though the count should be similar to the AP totals for the day only.

Alabama had 37 delegates up for grabs in Tuesday's Primary and Santroum should receive 19 with Gingrich and Romney receiving 9 each. Mississippi's had 47 on the block with Santorum and Romney receiving 13 each and Gingrich with 12 with the remaining still unpledged. Once again the proportional system awards delegates according to how each placed in specific Congressional Districts which explains why though with a higher percentage of the vote Gingrich received 1 less delegate than the third place finish of Romney in Mississippi.

Even with the current totals, again the official RNC totals may differ somewhat from those shown by AP there is still no clear indication as to which candidate has the advantage for the nomination. Remember the official RNC total before Tuesday's Primaries had Gingrich in second with 16 more delegates than Santorum's 95 while AP had him at 217 and Romney at 325 as opposed to AP's 454. So until the official RNC count is made public it will not be known exactly how this will affect the path to the nomination.

Many fear this going all the way to the Convention believing that it will take the focus off of Obama and give him an advantage. Don't forget two things. In 1980 Reagan did not get the needed 1144 until the end of May and the Convention was the final deciding factor and he destroyed Carter. Also most voters do not pay much attention to a Presidential election until the final two months before the November General Election. So deciding a candidate at the end of August will not hurt the GOP chance in defeating Obama.

Additionally the price of gas is not going down but will continue to rise as will unemployment both of which will are major thorns in the side of Obama's campaign going into November. His continued failure with the economy will also only worsen as November approaches and these will be deciding factors for the majority of voters not how the nomination came about nor what was said in the months preceding that nomination. This is far from over and the fat lady isn't even getting dressed to sing much less warming her voice up.

Ken Taylor

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